If many think Trump was unjustly incarcerated and kept from the presidency, will there be extreme civil unrest?
11
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2026
23%
chance

This is a conditional market. It will resolve N/A unless Trump is arrested AND >10% of the country thinks that his arrest is unjust + kept him from the presidency. The latter criterion will reflect consensus on American media, including Twitter and various news sites. If Trump is not arrested (based on https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned), this will resolve as N/A.

Extreme civil unrest is defined loosely. I'll know it when I see it. Any of these would count:

  • > 10,000 deaths

  • Secession of a state

  • Wholesale replacement of a national / state legislature

  • Abduction of a prominent leader

EDIT 2023-08-29 22:35:00

Changed arrested -> incarcerated in the title.

To clarify further, I mean that Trump gets put under house arrest or in prison. Ie, his recent brief stint in jail does not count.

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He’s been arrested and greater than 10% currently poll as thinking this was unjust. Has the conditional been met in your mind?

predicts YES

@AdamTreat I think not. I put a small clarification in the description and slightly changed the title.

predicts YES

@aashiq Further, >10% have to think the incarceration kept him from the presidency. Ie, if he experiences sudden cognitive decline and looks set to lose anyway and then gets arrested, I would resolve this N/A.

We will not know if the validity condition has been met until around the time of the election, because it reflects people's beliefs about why the election is going the way it's going.

If Trump gets incarcerated, everyone is mad in the moment, but then forgets about it by the time of the election, I will resolve this N/A.

This market is really meant to address the scenario of "the worst nightmare of every Trump supporter comes to pass. will there be total chaos afterwards?"

bought Ṁ7 of NO

@aashiq Thanks for the clarification. For me, I think there will be unrest but not of the extreme you specify … something akin to 10000+ dead

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