This is a conditional market. It will resolve N/A unless Trump is arrested AND >10% of the country thinks that his arrest is unjust + kept him from the presidency. The latter criterion will reflect consensus on American media, including Twitter and various news sites. If Trump is not arrested (based on https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned), this will resolve as N/A.
Extreme civil unrest is defined loosely. I'll know it when I see it. Any of these would count:
> 10,000 deaths
Secession of a state
Wholesale replacement of a national / state legislature
Abduction of a prominent leader
EDIT 2023-08-29 22:35:00
Changed arrested -> incarcerated in the title.
To clarify further, I mean that Trump gets put under house arrest or in prison. Ie, his recent brief stint in jail does not count.
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@AdamTreat I think not. I put a small clarification in the description and slightly changed the title.
@aashiq Further, >10% have to think the incarceration kept him from the presidency. Ie, if he experiences sudden cognitive decline and looks set to lose anyway and then gets arrested, I would resolve this N/A.
We will not know if the validity condition has been met until around the time of the election, because it reflects people's beliefs about why the election is going the way it's going.
If Trump gets incarcerated, everyone is mad in the moment, but then forgets about it by the time of the election, I will resolve this N/A.
This market is really meant to address the scenario of "the worst nightmare of every Trump supporter comes to pass. will there be total chaos afterwards?"
@aashiq Thanks for the clarification. For me, I think there will be unrest but not of the extreme you specify … something akin to 10000+ dead