This is a conditional market. It will resolve N/A unless Trump is arrested AND >10% of the country thinks that his arrest is unjust + kept him from the presidency. The latter criterion will reflect consensus on American media, including Twitter and various news sites. If Trump is not arrested (based on https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned), this will resolve as N/A.

When will Trump serve time?

Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

Extreme civil unrest is defined loosely. I'll know it when I see it. Any of these would count:

• > 10,000 deaths

• Secession of a state

• Wholesale replacement of a national / state legislature

• Abduction of a prominent leader

EDIT 2023-08-29 22:35:00

Changed arrested -> incarcerated in the title.

To clarify further, I mean that Trump gets put under house arrest or in prison. Ie, his recent brief stint in jail does not count.