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Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030?
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38
Ṁ3.2k2030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
20%
trump wins & china invades taiwan
40%
trump wins & china doesn't invade taiwan
5%
trump loses & china invades taiwan
35%
trump loses & china doesn't invade taiwan
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bought Ṁ10 trump wins & china i... NO
@Ansel I think the opposite, China would be less likely to invade Taiwan if the US President is a Very Stable Genius. Having an unpredictable narcissist as President certainly is not without its downsides, but I do think that it does deter some bad actors.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=amlt
The "china invades taiwan" options should probably sum to something closer to 27%. Anyway very small arb opportunity if anyone feels like it.
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