Does anyone have a rationale for why the invasion probs are unaffected? Intuitively I think Trump is far less likely to support Taiwan, making it more likely China takes the opportunity to invade. Tempted to bet this opinion.

@Ansel There are people who think each way. It's balanced right now, but has been both ways.

@Ansel I think the opposite, China would be less likely to invade Taiwan if the US President is a Very Stable Genius. Having an unpredictable narcissist as President certainly is not without its downsides, but I do think that it does deter some bad actors.

@nathanwei https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=amlt

The "china invades taiwan" options should probably sum to something closer to 27%. Anyway very small arb opportunity if anyone feels like it.

two of these options are identical and one is missing

@lexande ty fixed