Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030?
36
3.1k
2030
15%
trump wins & china invades taiwan
33%
trump wins & china doesn't invade taiwan
10%
trump loses & china invades taiwan
42%
trump loses & china doesn't invade taiwan

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Does anyone have a rationale for why the invasion probs are unaffected? Intuitively I think Trump is far less likely to support Taiwan, making it more likely China takes the opportunity to invade. Tempted to bet this opinion.

@Ansel There are people who think each way. It's balanced right now, but has been both ways.

bought Ṁ10 trump wins & china i... NO

@Ansel I think the opposite, China would be less likely to invade Taiwan if the US President is a Very Stable Genius. Having an unpredictable narcissist as President certainly is not without its downsides, but I do think that it does deter some bad actors.

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=amlt

The "china invades taiwan" options should probably sum to something closer to 27%. Anyway very small arb opportunity if anyone feels like it.

two of these options are identical and one is missing

@lexande ty fixed

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