Conditional on the next US President being Democrat, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
12
Ṁ452
2029
23%
chance

Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that. I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Democratic Party.

The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.

Sister question:

Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh

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How will you resolve this if they invade before the election?

predicts NO

@DavidFWatson will resolve NA!

[See Description: "Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that."]

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