Conditional on the next US President being Democrat, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
12
144
Ṁ452Ṁ210
2029
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that. I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Democratic Party.
The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.
Sister question:
Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh
Get Ṁ200 play money
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@DavidFWatson will resolve NA!
[See Description: "Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that."]
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