Conditional on the next US President being Democratic, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
14
1kṀ552resolved Feb 22
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that. I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Democratic Party.
The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.
Sister question:
Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@DavidFWatson will resolve NA!
[See Description: "Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that."]
Related questions
Related questions
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
33% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
40% chance
If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?
16% chance
Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
33% chance
If Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?
27% chance
Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
37% chance
Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
42% chance