Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Question

Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that. I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Republican party.

The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.

Sister question:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/galaga/conditional-on-the-next-us-presiden-950953ec17c9)Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (17 traders, as of Jul 14, 2026).