Which manifolders will still be active in 2028? (add answers!)

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.7kṀ5.1k

2029

95%

88%

85%

85%

76%

69%

68%

66%

66%

65%

65%

60%

60%

59%

54%

54%

53%

52%

50%

50%

なはら

They must make at least one trade every year including 2028 to qualify.

So, if an entire calendar year goes by and the account has not made a trade, that answer will resolve NO!

Otherwise, the answer will resolve YES when the account makes a trade in 2028!

API/bot trades don't count.

Market context

Manifold Users

Meta-markets

Manifold

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opened a Ṁ11 NO at 70% order

@realDonaldTrump Frankly I think it's unlikely

@Jack1 Uuuuuhhh... Hm... This will be weird.

Re: Name change

@Quroe it counts as me Because I added the answer

opened a Ṁ300 NO at 6% order

@jim resolves NO

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 6% order

@SimonWestlake Also @BTE

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 60% order

@SimonWestlake And @chrisjbillington

@SimonWestlake i think chris has bet in each year so far

@jim yeah, idk what I was seeing before...

bought Ṁ100 NO

@jim would @firstuserhere and @sircryptomind be resolved as NO since their accounts are unable to be found?

@musuko384 SirCryptomind is @Lunar now; FUH is banned and long gone. But I guess he could be unbanned in 2025 and still resolve YES in 2028?

sold Ṁ100 NO

@evan Banned users can still bet on markets, and such. They just cannot create questions or reply on bets.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Very low threshold for activity

What about keeping your streak alive. That'd be serious

@Ernie wow that would be a lot of fun. Sorry, I am not an expert at making fun markets 😆 . I will make that version when I have mana again 🥼 or you can if you can feel like it.

I like this one, but a streak one sounds much more exciting!

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Will a Manifolder noticeably improve my life in 2026?

45% chance

Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?

45% chance

Will I be active on Manifold at the end of 2026?

67% chance

Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)

56% chance

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

87% chance

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

72% chance

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

40% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be active in 2030?

92% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be around by 2030?

92% chance

Will Manifold still be running at the end of 2027?

94% chance

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