Resolves YES if I personally resolve this market within 72 hours of its scheduled close date(08.12.2033), indicating that I was still an active Manifold user at the time. Resolves NO if: I do not resolve the market within 72 hours after close, or A moderator or anyone else ends up resolving it on my behalf (which would imply I was inactive). I will only bet YES on this market.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (28 traders, as of Oct 16, 2026).

Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?

Ṁ100Ṁ2.3k

2033

50%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if I personally resolve this market within 72 hours of its scheduled close date(08.12.2033), indicating that I was still an active Manifold user at the time.

Resolves NO if:

I do not resolve the market within 72 hours after close, or
A moderator or anyone else ends up resolving it on my behalf (which would imply I was inactive).

I will only bet YES on this market.

Get

1,000

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 60% order

@traders 1000 mana limit order up at 60% cause i gotta dump my mana somewhere

sold Ṁ4 NO

@winged_one not a great sign that you don’t know how to use your mana

bought Ṁ1 YES

@MachiNi I mean I don't have the time to look for new markets to bet on all day, there only so many markets that interest me that I can actually find.
I'm also not willing to put in the time and do like actual research on topics I don't already know about, I'm on manifold for fun and getting prediction on some stuff i care about.
To be fair I'm probably also a little too careful with how much mana I'm willing to bet on individual markets I probably should juts bet more even on risky bets.