Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if I perform at least one publicly verifiable action on Manifold during the 30-day period leading up to June 13, 2027 (specifically, from May 14, 2027, through June 13, 2027, UTC).

Publicly verifiable actions include:

• Placing a bet

• Creating a market

• Writing a comment or reply

• Creating or editing a post

• Any other activity that registers publicly on my Manifold user profile activity log

This market will resolve to NO if my profile shows no such public activity during this 30-day window.

If my account is deleted, permanently banned, or otherwise inaccessible at the time of resolution, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

Manifold is a prediction market platform where user retention can be highly variable, influenced by platform updates, personal interest, and community dynamics. This market acts as a self-forecasting tool to predict my long-term engagement and whether I will remain an active participant on the platform one year from now.