I'd say there is a chance a number of funny things could happen

The funniest outcome would be if Poilievre loses a special election, too.
Unfortunately, the end of May is too short a timeline.

3000 limit order on NO at 40,%

BTW market was copied on Polymarket and is trading at 3%

https://polymarket.com/event/pierre-poilievre-resigns-as-leader-of-conservatives-before-june

Prime Minister Mark Carney says he will quickly call a byelection for Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre as an incoming Alberta MP has announced he’ll step aside.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2025/05/02/pierre-poilievre-mark-carney-byelection-call/

https://globalnews.ca/news/11158969/pierre-poilievre-leadership-mps-backing-conservatives/

Amanda Galbraith, a partner at Oyster Group and a former adviser to Harper, said there appears to be enough support for Poilievre to allow him to stay on as leader.

“I think there’s a really strong desire, at least from all the folks that I talk to on the ground, supporters and organizers, that they want Pierre to stay on,” she said.

“I honestly have not heard any rumblings about anyone wanting him removed.”

Likely that he will stay on and run in a special election to officially be a party leader in the House of Commons.

Wow is there precedent for maintaining his leadership position when he just lost his seat? Can he do that?

@BlueDragon Unprecedented in recent history. But he totally can. That's up to his party.

@jgyou it might be the right move. He’s clearly had an impact nationally.

Polievre gave a speech where he clearly indicated he isn't planning to resign, we'll see if he can keep his caucus under control

Poilievre is trailing by 2000 votes with 10k reporting.

With one station reporting, Poilievre is trailing in his own riding.

Gap is widening, 10 polls reporting

What a fumble!