[Metaculus] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?
[Metaculus] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?
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300Ṁ80122026
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Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.
In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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