Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.

In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.