Resolution Criteria

• This market will resolve YES for any individual listed if they:

  1. Resign from their position as party leader AND

  2. Announce a resignation from their parliamentary seat AND

  3. Explicitly cite the 2025 Federal Election results as a primary reason for their resignation

  4. Party leader loses their seat in the election and resigns as leader

  The announcement of resignation must occur within 1 month after the election to be considered a direct result of the election.

  For each individual:

  • Anthony Albanese: Current Prime Minister and Labor Party leader

  • Peter Dutton: Liberal Party leader and Leader of the Opposition

  • Adam Bandt: Leader of the Australian Greens

  • Pauline Hanson: Leader of One Nation

  • David Littleproud: Leader of the National Party

  The market will resolve NO for individuals who:

  • Only resign from their leadership position but retain their seat, without announcing an intention to resign within the listed period

  • Lose their seat but retain party leadership.

  • Reign as leader ends for reasons unrelated to the election (e.g., health issues, scandals)

  • Announce resignation more than 1 month after the election