Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration? | Manifold

Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?

Plus

31

Ṁ3014

Jan 21

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This resolves to yes if the blockade begins after 10/31/2024 and before 1/21/2025.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇨🇳 China

#China Taiwan potential conflict

#🇹🇼 Taiwan

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

(Spoilers below for the 3 Body Problem series)

I'm picturing this like the changing of the sword-holder in Death's End, where the instant Trump is inaugurated China launches a full-scale invasion.

bought Ṁ100 NO

A blockade that affects the whole of Taiwan? Or does the blockade of individual ports or offshore islands also count?

@Jan53274 Excellent question- I’d say yes in both cases assuming the blockade is sustained and used as a political tool. If some ships surround a minor island for 20 minutes before moving on then no.

@jdilla Maybe you can define blockade in the description. For example as a certain percentage reduction of taiwans trade and a time frame. to prevent fringe cases like the intimidation of individual trade ships or a blockade of a lighthouse boathouse 😄

@Jan53274 Will do soon! I agree that length and size of operation will help make it measurable.

Related questions

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?

Will there be a female president of the United States before China and Taiwan go to war?

If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?

Conditional on the next US President being Democrat, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2035)

When will China invade Taiwan

Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2025?

Will China invade/blockade Taiwan in 2024?

Related questions

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)

Conditional on the next US President being Democrat, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2035)

Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?

When will China invade Taiwan

Will there be a female president of the United States before China and Taiwan go to war?

Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2025?

If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?

Will China invade/blockade Taiwan in 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules