Would it be a net benefit if for most markets, authors were not allowed to trade on their own market? [Resolves to my opinion]
40
810Ṁ1590
resolved Feb 21
Resolved as
60%

Upsides of disallowing author trading include

  • Somewhat reduces potential bias for ambiguous resolutions, and significantly reduces the potential for perceived bias, which is important.

  • Makes it harder for the author to profit by a deliberate misresolution

Downsides of it include

  • The author presumably is interested in and knowledgeable about the question, and disallowing them from trading may make the predictions less likely and discourage making some markets.

The pros and cons can vary greatly depending on the type of market. For personal markets, depending on the goal of the market it may make sense for the author to trade or not, and it's usually a good idea for the author to state their trading policy up-front. But this question is more about non-personal markets.

What I'm thinking of here would be something like if markets default to not allowing author trading but it can be optionally turned on. But the specifics could be anything that seems like a good idea - suggestions welcome.

Here are a few previous discussions:

https://manifold.markets/1/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it

https://manifold.markets/Yev/what-of-manifold-users-think-its-so

https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/is-it-acceptable-for-a-market-maker

Note: I would rather move away from the model of author having full control over resolutions, towards one where authors resolve most questions but in cases of dispute the final authority rests with a resolution council of some sort. /jack/will-it-be-possible-to-dispute-and . But if we're still stuck with authors deciding all resolutions, it is possible it may be overall good to not allow authors to trade.

Resolution

This question resolves to my subjective belief (credence) that if most markets disallowed author trading, that would be a net benefit for Manifold.

I'll form my belief based on the discussion in the comments, so please let me know why you think it would be good or bad. If you have an opinion you'd like to register, note that I take persuasive comments as much stronger evidence than just betting up/down. Betting up/down is essentially a bet about what you think I'll be convinced by and will only minimally influence my resolution.

I will not trade on this market.

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