Markets with too few traders often yield unreliable predictions. On Manifold, many struggle to attract even 5 traders, leading to less accurate outcomes. An incentive could address this issue. Manifold’s data suggests that calibration stabilizes between 10 and 20 traders, beyond which additional traders add little value. The goal, then, is to boost most markets to this range.
I propose adjusting the streak bonus: award it only for trades on markets with fewer than 10 traders. This would encourage participation in underserved markets, benefiting creators and improving prediction quality. Once most markets reach 10 traders, the threshold could shift to 20.
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves YES if Manifold introduces any mana-based incentive in 2025 to encourage trading on markets with a small number of traders—whether my proposal (streak bonus adjustment) or another approach (e.g., an extra mana bonus). It resolves NO if no such incentive is implemented by December 31, 2025.
1,000Hi @Manifold, I hope you have noticed my proposal for an incentive to trade on markets with few traders, and will at least check it.
Arguably isn't the current incentive to trade on markets with few traders and inaccurate odds the very fact that you can profit from correcting those odds? I think easily 3/4 or more of my trades are on markets in the browse by new page precisely because that's where I can semi frequently find profit opportunities
@TheAllMemeingEye That's the perspective of a successful trader, ok. But most don't trade like that. My argument is that such an incentive would help creators and Manifold in general, because the average quality of predictions would increase.
@GleamingRhino I think the criteria are very clear. Yes if an incentive for trading on markets with a small number of traders is introduced. No, if no such incentive is introduced.
@Haiku Ok, that might be a downside. But the problem of bait market should be addressed anyway. One the other hand, such an incentive would bring lots of benefits for serious markets that struggle to get enough traders (like mine).