Is it acceptable for a market maker to bet on their own market with a subjective resolution criteria?
23
470Ṁ643
resolved Feb 11
Resolved
YES

Here's how this works. I'm trying to figure out what Manifold norms & consensus are on various behaviors.

A big reason I create markets is because nobody has created them yet, and I want to make bets on those conditions! But sometimes it's tricky to specify a super objective resolution criteria from the get-go, and sometimes you can't really escape subjective resolution criteria, but you CAN be honest and up front about it.


So this leaves me in a position where I want to know under what circumstances Manifolders generally consider it okay for a market creator like me to make big bets in a market I myself created, provided it has a subjective resolution criteria.

This is the context that drove that discussion -- some folks got confused about the resolution criteria and objected to some bets I had made (I sold my shares at a loss in reply to null out my position in that market):

https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-leftright-culture-war-come#EIiy8w83UsqQfKbdYpCo

Resolution criteria for THIS market:

  • I won't bet on this market

  • I will resolve it -- subjectively! -- based on the most persuasive arguments I hear in the comments

  • I will also take into account the voted probability, but just as weak additional evidence, so don't try to mechanistically manipulate the market resolution outcome on that basis

  • I'll resolve as soon as I'm convinced or within a week from now

If you have an opinion you'd like to register, note that I take persuasive comments as much stronger evidence than just betting up/down. Betting up/down is essentially a bet about what you think I'll be convinced by and will only minimally influence my resolution.

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