https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/technology/google-ads-lawsuit.html

The Justice Department and a group of states sued Google on Tuesday, accusing it of illegally abusing a monopoly over the technology that powers online advertising
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The lawsuit asked the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia to force Google to sell its suite of ad technology products and stop the company from engaging in allegedly anticompetitive practices.

Will the Justice Department win the suit?

It will resolve YES if Google is forced to sell its suite of ad technology products or if they do so as part of a settlement. It will resolve NO if the suit fails or a settlement results in Google remaining essentially in its current state (with potentially a minimal fine).

If a settlement results in Google selling the AdManager business (operationalized as the doubleclick.net domain no longer being owned by Alphabet), this will resolve as YES.

If the main result of a settlement is that Alphabet moves Google's ad business into a separate company that is still fully owned by Alphabet, that would resolve as NO.

Currently set to close at the end of 2024, but will adjust to resolve when the lawsuit resolves.