US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)

Question

Resolves YES if by the end of 2026, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred during 2024). Resolves NO otherwise.

For context on how NBER determines recessions, see https://manifold.markets/jack/did-the-us-officially-enter-a-reces

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (45 traders, as of Dec 29, 2025).