Will the next President [Trump] be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
1
𝕊1
2029
15%
chance

Resolves YES if during the US Presidential term starting January 2025, the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to formally declare that "the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President.

The duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question.

The President invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count. The President exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count - in that event, the question resolves NO immediately, i.e. the President's successor does not count for the question.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Sweeped!

opened a Ṁ15 YES at 1.0% order

Similar market ; possible arb opportunity:

At first glance I read "decapitated" from "declared incapacitated"

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