Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Question

Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. Resolves 'YES' immediately upon such a declaration, even if Trump is only temporarily divested of authority.

Would also resolve 'YES' if Trump voluntarily transfers presidential authority to Vance, as described in Section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, IF AND ONLY IF  Vance assumes presidential authority for a continuous duration in excess of one week (7 days).

Resolves 'N/A' if Trump is not elected President in 2024.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

2024-11-21: Edited title "If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?" -> "Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?"

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (40 traders, as of Mar 11, 2026).