If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?
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Plus
27
Ṁ20k
2029
19%
chance

Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. Resolves 'YES' immediately upon such a declaration, even if Trump is only temporarily divested of authority.

Would also resolve 'YES' if Trump voluntarily transfers presidential authority to Vance, as described in Section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, IF AND ONLY IF Vance assumes presidential authority for a continuous duration in excess of one week (7 days).


Resolves 'N/A' if Trump is not elected President in 2024.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

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bought Ṁ50 NO

This is a disturbingly high number, and yet if feels calibrated.

bought Ṁ500 NO

I think it's very mispriced compared to this one:

A vote for Trump is a vote for Vance backed by Peter Thiel. Acolytes of yarvin. Oh wait I'm too late. Thälmann wasn't. And yet.

reposted

Trump won.

A similar previous market:

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