Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? Including creating new markets
40
244
1K
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO

Background:

https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements

Inspired by this tweet:

Aug 4, 9:13pm: Will PredictIt create any new markets before March 2023? → Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023?


Aug 4, 9:51pm: "Operating normally" means that PredictIt is still creating new markets and you can still deposit money and trade those markets in the United States

Aug 11, 1:17am: On the latest Star Spangled Gamblers podcast, the PredictIt CEO said it might be possible for them to get CFTC approval for non-election political markets, and also that they applied earlier to the CFTC earlier this year for permission to create a new website that would operate differently from PredictIt. Neither of those meet the criteria of "operating normally", for this market to resolve YES there must be election markets on PredictIt.com

Mar 1, 9:02am: Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? → Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? Including creating new markets

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bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

It seems like PredictIt is still not creating new markets.

PredictIt asks 5th circuit court to extend the Feb 15 deadline while they consider the case.

This market will not necessarily resolve Yes if that happens, per the original description PredictIt would need to create more than one new market in March.

*create more than one new market between now and the end of March

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@ahalekelly I’m confused by this addendum. On Aug 4 you said:

Operating normally" means that PredictIt is still creating new markets

I read “be operating normally in March” as new market creation (elections included) must be createable on March 1 or become createable again before March 31. Is that not what you mean?

@MattCWilson it's hard to know if new markets are createable, all we can do is look at whether markets have been created

bought Ṁ14 of YES
I think there's meant to be a link to a tweet, but I don't see it. Separately, more clarification on "normally" would be lovely.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
@ScottLawrence Yeah sorry there's a bug where if you change the title of a market, it deletes images from the description
predicted NO
"Operating normally" means that PredictIt is still creating new markets and you can still deposit money and trade those markets
predicted NO
With no US geoblocking