ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
closes Mar 2
Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023?
50%
chance

Background:

https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements

Inspired by this tweet:

Aug 4, 9:13pm: Will PredictIt create any new markets before March 2023? → Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023?


Aug 4, 9:51pm: "Operating normally" means that PredictIt is still creating new markets and you can still deposit money and trade those markets in the United States

Aug 11, 1:17am: On the latest Star Spangled Gamblers podcast, the PredictIt CEO said it might be possible for them to get CFTC approval for non-election political markets, and also that they applied earlier to the CFTC earlier this year for permission to create a new website that would operate differently from PredictIt. Neither of those meet the criteria of "operating normally", for this market to resolve YES there must be election markets on PredictIt.com

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ahalekelly avatar

PredictIt asks 5th circuit court to extend the Feb 15 deadline while they consider the case.

This market will not necessarily resolve Yes if that happens, per the original description PredictIt would need to create more than one new market in March.

ahalekelly avatar

*create more than one new market between now and the end of March

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilson
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@ahalekelly I’m confused by this addendum. On Aug 4 you said:

Operating normally" means that PredictIt is still creating new markets

I read “be operating normally in March” as new market creation (elections included) must be createable on March 1 or become createable again before March 31. Is that not what you mean?

ScottLawrence avatar
Scott Lawrence
bought Ṁ14 of YES
I think there's meant to be a link to a tweet, but I don't see it. Separately, more clarification on "normally" would be lovely.
ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
bought Ṁ100 of NO
@ScottLawrence Yeah sorry there's a bug where if you change the title of a market, it deletes images from the description
ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
is predicting NO at 29%
"Operating normally" means that PredictIt is still creating new markets and you can still deposit money and trade those markets
ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
is predicting NO at 29%
With no US geoblocking