Background: The CFTC ruled that PredictIt must cease operating prediction markets in the US. Many have speculated that Kalshi was primarily responsible for the shutdown. Apparently someone filed a Freedom of Information request about the CFTC's ruling. See https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022 for more.

Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for the CFTC's ruling to shut down PredictIt?

Resolves YES if after a FOIA request to the CFTC about this topic is fulfilled, any of the following occur:

• Nuño Sempere posts that in his opinion, the FOIA request revealed that Kalshi was primarily responsible for the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt

• Nuño posts that he believes the chance that Kalshi caused PredictIt's shutdown was at least 75%

Resolves NO if any of the following occur:

• A FOIA request to the CFTC about this topic is fulfilled and provides sufficiently clear evidence that Kalshi was not primarily responsible for the decision, as judged by Nuño.

• None of the above events occur by the end of 2025.

For reference, Nuño states his current beliefs as:

My independent opinion is that there is a fair chance that Kalshi caused the previous Polymarket fall from grace in the eyes of the CFTC (60%), and a lower chance that they caused this one (40%).

If Nuño is not available as a resolution source or does not post an opinion within 3 months of the fulfillment of a relevant FOIA request, I will resolve in my best judgement.

For more background, see:

• https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022

• https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket

• https://karlstack.substack.com/p/a-textbook-case-of-regulatory-capture

Related markets:

• https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m

• https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/why-was-predictit-shut-down