Will the next North Korean nuclear weapon test be on a sunny morning?
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2031
78%
chance

Resolves YES if the next North Korean test of a nuclear weapon occurs between 9am and 12:30pm local time, and in weather that is sunny or mostly sunny. Resolves NO if the test occurs in conditions that do not meet those criteria. Resolves N/A if no test occurs before 2030.

All 6 of North Korea's past tests have fit these conditions. Will the next test continue this pattern?

Among six past DPRK nuclear tests, three were conducted in fall, twice in winter, and once in spring. All six were conducted during morning time, on a day that had crisp and bright weather.

North Korea conducted nuclear tests on Oct. 2006, May 2009, Feb. 2013, Jan. 2016, Sept. 2016 and Sept. 2017 between 9 a.m. and half past noon.

from

https://www.nknews.org/2022/07/rok-military-chief-says-north-korean-nuclear-test-unlikely-during-monsoon-season/.

The article says rainy weather may impede movement of equipment, but it's not clear to me why cloudy weather would be a problem (note that the test site is underground).

Resolution sources:

Related

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.


Close date updated to 2030-12-31 11:59 pm

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