Will North Korea attempt to invade South Korea before 2035?
23
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2035
18%
chance

Well... will they or not? In particular, are either of the following scenarios realistic???

https://youtu.be/mGKqMi6ZatQ?si=gNykOFsHyo56eB2_

And...

https://youtu.be/c8jtECzK3gk?si=9ktJ036gw5zgheDS

Plus...

https://youtu.be/6qTNObVSZlg?si=H6LtaZVy_PtjkQxu

So far the consensus seems to be that US nuclear deterrence security guarantees are might be inadequate, barring the push towards the acquisition of nuclear weapons on the part of South Korea. This is because it is expected that North Korea will use nuclear weapons in the opening phases of the conflict...

But either way, if a compelling case can be made in which North Korea won't attempt to invade South Korea, specify what exactly would deter them from doing so?

Update 09/17/2023: Changed "Attack" to "Invade", as that more closely reflects what I mean for this particular question, and to eliminate any ambiguity.

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Do you count cyberattacks as attacks?

predicts YES

@Arinbjorn

Only if used in conjunction within a broader military campaign. The Russo-Ukraine war is a good reference point in this regard:

https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/technology/cyberconflictintherussiaukrainewar/

Does killing a soldier at the border qualify as an attempt to attack?

predicts YES

@a2bb

No, unless one can verify that it is part of an attempt to breach the border to initiate a large scale invasion.

North Korea has at times launched artillery strikes at the border, but so far it is just being done for intimidation purposes, rather than as part of a coordinated military campaign to conquer South Korea.

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