If North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, how many will they test?
Mini
7
174
2026
41%
Other
33%
only 1
8%
2
7%
5
3%
3
1.8%
4

According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea's five-year weapons development plan (unveiled Jan 2021) requires multiple types of nuclear weapons to be tested. It has been suggested that North Korea may be planning on a succession of tests of tactical nuclear weapons of different sizes, similar to the test series that were run by Pakistan and India in 1998.

In 1998, India tested a salvo of three weapons, followed by a salvo of two weapons two days later. Similarly, Pakistan tested a salvo of five weapons simultaneously, and followed up with a sixth test of a single warhead two days later. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_Pakistan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_India)

Conditional on North Korea testing a nuclear weapon, how many will they test in the initial salvo and in the subsequent 30 days?

(Motivation: https://www.nknews.org/2022/10/north-korea-could-conduct-more-than-one-nuclear-test-in-a-row-experts/ )

(This market will resolve N/A if North Korea does not perform any tests before 2026.10.31, and if the number of devices tested is disputed it will follow the resultant Wikipedia page "list of nuclear weapon tests of North Korea". Note that this implies that sub-kiloton / sub-critical explosive tests are likely to be included in the total.)

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2026-10-31 11:59 pm

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This market closed by mistake. I intended it to run for 5 years. If you were betting in part on the expectation that it remain closed from October 2022 until resolution in 2026, please let me know and I will tip you to reimburse your losses.

@brp You can just reopen it. Click the close date to edit.

Oh nvm, I see what you mean.

Placing a second bet on 3, because it's been a while since they did a nuclear test.

1 KN23/24 or similar + 1 cruise missile warhead.

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