brp avatar
brp
closes Oct 31, 2026
If North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, how many will they test?

According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea's five-year weapons development plan (unveiled Jan 2021) requires multiple types of nuclear weapons to be tested. It has been suggested that North Korea may be planning on a succession of tests of tactical nuclear weapons of different sizes, similar to the test series that were run by Pakistan and India in 1998.

In 1998, India tested a salvo of three weapons, followed by a salvo of two weapons two days later. Similarly, Pakistan tested a salvo of five weapons simultaneously, and followed up with a sixth test of a single warhead two days later. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_Pakistan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_India)

Conditional on North Korea testing a nuclear weapon, how many will they test in the initial salvo and in the subsequent 30 days?

(Motivation: https://www.nknews.org/2022/10/north-korea-could-conduct-more-than-one-nuclear-test-in-a-row-experts/ )

(This market will resolve N/A if North Korea does not perform any tests before 2026.10.31, and if the number of devices tested is disputed it will follow the resultant Wikipedia page "list of nuclear weapon tests of North Korea". Note that this implies that sub-kiloton / sub-critical explosive tests are likely to be included in the total.)

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2026-10-31 11:59 pm

brp avataronly 1
36%
brp avatar2
4%
brp avatar3
4%
brp avatar4
2%
brp avatarmore than 10
1.0%
brp avatar10
1.0%
brp avatar9
1.0%
brp avatar8
1.0%
brp avatar7
1.0%
Add your answer
Sort by:
brp avatar
brp

This market closed by mistake. I intended it to run for 5 years. If you were betting in part on the expectation that it remain closed from October 2022 until resolution in 2026, please let me know and I will tip you to reimburse your losses.

jack avatar
Jack

@brp You can just reopen it. Click the close date to edit.

jack avatar
Jack

Oh nvm, I see what you mean.

belikewater avatar
belikewaterbought Ṁ20 of 3

Placing a second bet on 3, because it's been a while since they did a nuclear test.

belikewater avatar
belikewaterbought Ṁ20 of 2

1 KN23/24 or similar + 1 cruise missile warhead.

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

If North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, how many will they test?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition