Will a nuclear weapon detonate in New York City in 2022?
Basic
12
Ṁ7859resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon detonates in the New York City metropolitan area after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.
Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
Related
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
And here's one for 2023: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-n-6edbcd23a9f1
Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
18% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
13% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?
16% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated during 2024?
13% chance
Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
15% chance
Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation in 2025?
6% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?
27% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
27% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
22% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
16% chance