jack avatar
closes Jan 1, 2023
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively (non-test) in 2022?
1.4%
chance

This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.

I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/ and/or https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/ to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive or not.

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jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ220 of NO

Similar question:

I think mine is clearer because of "detonated" vs "launched" (see discussion in https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5#jGdoWZDGD4845392vgWl, not all nuclear weapons are launched)