This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.
Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.
A deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/ and/or https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/ to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive or not.
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Similar question:
I think mine is clearer because of "detonated" vs "launched" (see discussion in https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5#jGdoWZDGD4845392vgWl, not all nuclear weapons are launched)