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I think this can be resolved no

@AndyMartin Not until 8am Eastern Time. https://greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/gmt-12/

@AndyMartin Someone asked a while back and I said it had to be November everywhere in the world so going by international date line. I am going to start using this as the default for markets that end on a specific date. What do you think about that as a standard for markets on geopolitical events @jack ?

@BTE Ah cool, thanks for the clarification!

@BTE I didn't want to quibble before but if it's going to become a widespread standard... it's worth noting that the international date line has some wiggles in it that people might not be aware of. It can be Oct 31 in one batch of Pacific islands while it's already Nov. 2 in another.

@Boklam That is a really good point. I am going to think this through a bit more, but I have not liked it in the past when my market closes on Eastern Time because that is where I live while the entire Manifold team and most users live three hours over on Pacific Time. I don't think there is any good reason it should resolve or close based on where the market maker resides, especially since we are often asking about things that are happening somewhere on the other side of the world. Still thinking...

@BTE Yeah there isn't any one solution I'm super happy with. For a lot of things I think local timezone makes sense - that's what I'm using for my North Korea, Ukraine, Brazil markets. But there's plenty of things where that doesn't make sense.

@Boklam would using the standard timezone "International Date Line West" aka UTC -12 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UTC%E2%88%9212:00 work?

@jack TBH I think anything works and it's just a matter of clearly stating it in the market description. (If the market close time is the same as the deadline, you could just say "by market close".)

@Boklam I think anything can work, but there are choices that are easier and less confusing for the author and for the readers.

I strongly downvote using "by market close" because market close can be edited and there's no trace of the original close date anywhere. This usually happens accidentally - I've done it myself. (Manifold could fix this, as I've suggested.)

However, I think if the author states a deadline and sets the market close to that deadline in some timezone, I think it is reasonable to assume that they mean that timezone.

Also, I think it's unnecessary burden on authors to expect them to state a timezone in every deadline in every market - and even if they mostly do people will forget. So it would be nice if there's some reasonable default that most people agree on.

@jack OK fair enough. I still feel "international date line" is kinda weird (afaict it's literally the time on two uninhabited islands in the middle of nowhere) but what you're saying makes sense.

@Boklam @jack I just hate excluding Hawaiians. They already miss out on so much, like major sporting events and basically anything that happens on the east coast because they are still at work.

I'm not necessarily advocating for International Date Line West, but it does make some sense.

I think for most of my markets so far I've defaulted to author timezone, just for convenience. For a few of them I use local timezone.

Another reasonable choice could be UTC.

For clarity, is this end of October Pyongyang time or your local time?

@LivInTheLookingGlass BTE had an earlier comment that said "Let's do at the international date line, so it has to be November 1st everywhere in the world for it not to count." So there's still another ~1 day.

@jack Thank you.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-set-to-conduct-tactical-nuclear-test-anytime-u-s-and-south-korean-officials-say/
definitely possible

It seems incredibly unlikely for a nuclear weapon to be detonated in the next 24-48 hours!

@FlorenceHinder Why is that? It is buried under a mountain and all they need to do is push a button. We aren't talking about an above ground test. I see no reason it couldn't happen any second.

Holy shit the limit order percentage changes when you use the middle scroll button on your mouse!!

Risk-free arb:

Related:

BTW there's another market that asks about detonations before Nov. 8. Seems to me "before Nov. 8" should be significantly more likely than "by Oct. 31". At this point, it's the difference between "next 5 days" and "next 13 days".

https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-5b3361923e29

What time zone? Local time in North Korea? US Eastern time? (Things are close enough now that this seems fairly likely to make a difference.)

@Boklam Let's do at the international date line, so it has to be November 1st everywhere in the world for it not to count.