IF Ukraine gains control of Kherson before the end of 2022, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?
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I'm seeing a narrative where people worry that if Putin feels that he is losing his war in Ukraine decisively enough, he will throw a nuclear tantrum. I am curious about the causality here.
If https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kher resolves NO or N/A I will resolve this market N/A. Otherwise, I will resolve this market to the same outcome as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475
Oct 6, 10:49am:
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