I'm seeing a narrative where people worry that if Putin feels that he is losing his war in Ukraine decisively enough, he will throw a nuclear tantrum. I am curious about the causality here.
If https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kher resolves NO or N/A I will resolve this market N/A. Otherwise, I will resolve this market to the same outcome as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475
Oct 6, 10:49am:
@egroj Yes. I am committed to resolving this market identically with https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475
Note that this market is now quite nearly a duplicate of https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475
The question should be specific to a nuclear weapon being detonated in and close to Ukraine. Otherwise probabilities are skewed by North Korea etc.
@JanLukasR I agree, I could have specified this better. I think at this point I need to resolve the market as written.
Based on recent pricing, it looks like whether a nuclear weapon is detonated has little to do with whether Kherson is retaken, which is not what I was expecting going in.
