IF Ukraine gains control of Kherson before the end of 2022, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?
12%
chance

I'm seeing a narrative where people worry that if Putin feels that he is losing his war in Ukraine decisively enough, he will throw a nuclear tantrum. I am curious about the causality here.

If https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kher resolves NO or N/A I will resolve this market N/A. Otherwise, I will resolve this market to the same outcome as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475

Oct 6, 10:49am:

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egroj avatar

Would a test by North Korea also count?

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blume
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@egroj Yes. I am committed to resolving this market identically with https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blume
is predicting YES at 8%

Note that this market is now quite nearly a duplicate of https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475

JanLukasR avatar

The question should be specific to a nuclear weapon being detonated in and close to Ukraine. Otherwise probabilities are skewed by North Korea etc.

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blume
is predicting YES at 17%

@JanLukasR I agree, I could have specified this better. I think at this point I need to resolve the market as written.

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blume
sold Ṁ111 of NO

Based on recent pricing, it looks like whether a nuclear weapon is detonated has little to do with whether Kherson is retaken, which is not what I was expecting going in.