What markets should've resolved in October but author hasn't resolved by end of November?
What markets should've resolved in October but author hasn't resolved by end of November?
3
400Ṁ93
resolved Dec 9

Each answer should be a specific market. Resolves equally (up to 10% each) to all answers I judge should have resolved in October, but the author didn't resolve by end of November. (If an admin resolves the market because the author was late to resolve, that still counts here.)

If there are up to 10 answers that meet the criteria, each of them will be chosen at a 10% share, and the answer "Less than 10" will be chosen with the remainder. If there are more than 10, then resolves to each of them equally.

Notes:

  • I will judge whether a market should have resolved subjectively, but I will read the community's discussion to inform my judgements.

  • A market resolution being late is not necessarily morally bad or anything like that. It's easy to accidentally forget about markets. This is first and foremost a statement about whether traders should be wary of potential late resolutions in the future.

  • If there are duplicate answers that refer to the same market, only the earliest will be chosen.

  • Only submitted answers will be considered. If a market meets the criteria but nobody submits it, then it doesn't count. I intend to submit any markets that I notice that qualify, but of course I might miss some.

  • Markets that were resolved by admins for a reason other than lateness will not be counted. E.g. if a user deletes their account and their markets are resolved N/A, that doesn't count here.

For examples of markets that might count, see https://manifold.markets/group/please-resolve

Related:


Close date updated to 2022-12-07 11:59 pm

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2y

Seems likely there were more markets that could have met the criteria, but only 2 submitted here qualify.

2y

@jack wicked fresh

2y

One could argue that it de facto crossed the line from partial to general in October. But That seems like a very weak argument, so I'll put it at 0.1%.

2y

@Yev Yeah I agree, the market could reasonably resolve yes or no, but it definitely isn't clear that it should have resolved already

2y

@jack Would it count as a market that should have resolved in January (but hasn't resolved by the end of February)?

2y

@Yev Yeah, probably. I might have to adjust the wording slightly to better capture these sorts of cases. Maybe something like "the latest time it should have resolved was in January"

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