Here are the next-year markets related to mobilization in Russia. Tried to make them better specified. If you anticipate any ambiguity in their resolutions, please let me know in the comments.

Hi everyone! Maybe a little late, but I still want to confirm that I am committed to resolve this market on time.

I thought of this market as instrumental (unfortunately it failed it's instrumental function) and did not invest much time into thinking through potential gray areas, so I'll have to resolve it according to my best judgement.

The way I see it, information we have today does not imply that ongoing mobilization in Russia should be definitely called "general". I think main criteria should be:

(1) scale (300 000 conscripts is several times less than Russian active military personnel before the invasion), I think one million mobilized conscripts is a good threshold,

(2) is it limited to specific groups of reservists (it seems that this one is in favor of "generalness"),

(3) are borders closed for most men of military age.

Another possible criterion is how hard it is to avoid being mobilized, but I am having a problem formalizing it.

Anyway, I am open to discussion.

My takeaway is that the word “obvious” is a big red flag here. If you need to resort to that word in the definition then you are getting hand-wavy.

Doesn't the current "partial mobilization" qualify as a YES? The law doesn't limit who will be called up and the number of people to mobilize is confidential but is rumored to be quite high (and can be increased as needed because it's secret). It probably won't get any more general than this because the current mobilization regime allows taking anyone worth mobilizing.

@VasilyKuznetsov Not to mention 300,000 is like more than 3x the original invasion force. Plus they are probably going to start calling it a "war" now, don't you think??

Ukraine claims a million-man army, over a population that's about 30% of Russia's. So I don't think it would make sense to call the mobilization of 300,000 men "general". I'd call it general if it reached a million men, at least.

@AlexandreK Completely disagree. Ukraine doesn't have an "army of a million men" usually, they have literally conscripted every able bodied man in the country to fight to. At the start of the war Ukraine had 160,000 man army. At the start of the war Russia had an invasion force of approximately 125,000, so 300,000 is an increase in the combat force by more than 200%.

General mobilization has never been about the numbers, it has been about transitioning from a "military operation" to a full-fledged war. The most significant part of the order is that anyone refusing service now can be thrown in prison no questions asked for 15 years minimum, that did not exist last Monday, so there is MUCH more to this than mere numbers, but the numbers alone are enough to call this a "general mobilization".

@AlexandreK The only thing "partial" about it is the equipment, ammunition and training Russia is providing the new conscripts. These kids are barely going to basic training, getting rusty rifles and have no hope of their supplies being replenished with anything from the post-Soviet era. In my opinion, this is the most desperate Putin will ever look, either he wins fast or he is toast.

The question concerns whether Russia “declares” a “general mobilization”. To me this means that either Putin or a senior military official, or major state news outlets actually SAY that a General Mobilization is happening, regardless of the “legal” reality on the ground.

@AnselFreniere Read the market description.

If general mobilization is not declared explicitly but it is obvious that some equivalent process has started, then this market also resolves "YES."

Russian law does not define "partial" and "general" mobilisation. It defines "mobilisation" as a process by which reservists are called up for active service. The only existing legal mechanism of calling up non-reservists is the semi-annual draft. Therefore, a "general mobilisation" would entail calling up all reservists without exception as to military specialisation, age category (of which there are 3), record of active service or combat experience.

It would have been nice if you could provide a definition of what you consider a "general" mobilization - i.e. the set of criteria that allows to decide it univocally.

Currently, both the legal documents that announce mobilization and actual reports from people who receive the summons indicate that there are no fixed criteria that determine which groups should or should not be mobilized.

So, despite my own prediction, I would say at present

it is obvious that some equivalent process has started

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/russia-ukraine-war-putin-announces-partial-military-mobilization.html

Does this count as YES?

@jack I'd say no.

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the partial mobilization of the Russian population

@jack
"If general mobilization is not declared explicitly but it is obvious that some equivalent process has started, then this market also resolves "YES.""

Although it is called a "partial" mobilization in the speech, the actual text doesn't support this- essentially any Russian can be called into service.

To announce partial mobilization in the Russian Federation from September 21, 2022.

1. To carry out the call of citizens of the Russian Federation for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service by mobilization have the status of military personnel serving in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under a contract.

2. Establish that the level of pay for citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service by mobilization into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation corresponds to the level of pay for military personnel serving in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under a contract.

3. Contracts for the passage of military service concluded by military personnel continue to be valid until the end of the period of partial mobilization, with the exception of cases of dismissal of military personnel from military service on the grounds established by this Decree.

4. Establish during the period of partial mobilization the following grounds for the dismissal from military service of servicemen undergoing military service under a contract, as well as citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation:

   a) by age - upon reaching the age limit for military service;

   b) for health reasons - in connection with their recognition by the military medical commission as unfit for military service, with the exception of military personnel who have expressed a desire to continue military service in military positions that can be replaced by the specified military personnel;

   c) in connection with the entry into force of a court verdict on the imposition of a sentence of imprisonment.

5. This Decree comes into force from the day of its official publication.

@jack I think this is clearly a YES. The enhanced penalties for insubordination or refusal to serve are what makes this more than partial IMO.

@jack It only pertains to reservists, so it wouldn't be considered general.

@AlexandreK Putin said it only pertains to reservists, but AFAIK the new law doesn't specify that.