Will Russia declare general mobilization before January 1, 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

Global Macro Russian Mobilization Wars

Will Russia declare general mobilization before January 1, 2023?

22%

chance

This market resolves "YES" if Russian officials announce general mobilization before January 1, 2023. If general mobilization is not declared explicitly but it is obvious that some equivalent process has started, then this market also resolves "YES." See also https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-declare-general-mobiliz

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is predicting YES at 60%

is predicting NO at 58%

Vasily Kuznetsov

is predicting YES at 63%

is predicting NO at 73%

is predicting YES at 73%

is predicting YES at 73%

bought Ṁ5 of NO

bought Ṁ100 of YES

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Anton Savchenko

is predicting NO at 85%

bought Ṁ10 of NO

bought Ṁ30 of NO

is predicting YES at 41%

is predicting YES at 54%

is predicting NO at 70%

sold Ṁ11 NO from 21% to 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 21%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 21%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 21%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 20%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 23% to 21%

sold Ṁ11 NO at 23%

bought Ṁ25 NO from 24% to 23%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 25% to 24%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 26% to 25%

sold Ṁ12 NO from 25% to 26%

sold Ṁ6 YES from 26% to 25%

created limit order for Ṁ40 NO at 85% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ0 NO at 26%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 28% to 27%

sold Ṁ14 NO from 27% to 28%

Vasily Kuznetsov

sold Ṁ4 YES from 28% to 27%

sold Ṁ3 YES from 29% to 28%

António Farinha

bought Ṁ10 NO from 30% to 29%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 30%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 31% to 30%

created limit order for Ṁ336 NO at 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 31%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 34% to 32%

bought Ṁ40 NO from 44% to 34%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 NO at 44% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ70 NO from 30% to 47%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 38% to 30%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 38%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 44% to 41%

sold Ṁ42 NO from 31% to 44%

bought Ṁ5 NO from 33% to 31%

sold Ṁ10 NO from 30% to 33%

sold Ṁ49 YES from 41% to 30%

sold Ṁ6 NO from 38% to 41%

sold Ṁ51 YES from 61% to 38%

sold Ṁ16 NO from 56% to 61%

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ30 NO at 56% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ40 YES from 46% to 61%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 41% to 46%

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ3 NO at 41% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ38/Ṁ52 YES at 21%

created limit order for Ṁ69 NO at 72%

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ34 NO at 61%

filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ28 YES at 32%

sold Ṁ5 NO from 39% to 41%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 39%

filled limit order Ṁ0/Ṁ1 NO at 43% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 38% to 43%