Prediction markets suck at predictions with the timespan of more than a few months because investments in any other asset grow organically with the market, while bets in the prediction markets don't.

There are other challenges for prediction markets, but this is in my opinion the biggest one. @RobinHanson seems to think that prediction market investments should track index funds. The commenters on "/Eliza/recommend-market-structures-that-in" think that there should be some sort of interest on investments.

Will Manifold implement any kind of growth or interest mechanism for invested mana?

The market closes on 2025-06-28 or on the last day of Manifest 2025, whatever comes first.

I do not bet on my own markets.

• Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:

  • Loan mechanisms (including any form of loans) do not qualify as automatic growth or interest for invested mana.

  • The resolution will focus solely on mechanisms that directly grow invested mana without involving any loan repayment process.

• Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mechanism Specification Update:

  • Only growth mechanisms that accrue interest on invested mana count (no interest on uninvested mana).

  • The qualifying mechanism should be a direct interest-type growth (e.g., on the order of a few % per year) and not based on any form of loan or repayment process.