I just remembered about conditional markets, but I don't wanna add it because I already know the probability :")

Boosts should resolve yes

@No_uh great re-addition btw, love this

Early resolve, partial resolve, multiple resolve, numeric, date, full distribution, full cumulative distribution...these are all possible to do using simple combinations of the basic binary type. There should be more flexibility for creators to combine the basic type into interesting markets. For instance, there's currently no way to close or subsidize individual options using the independent MC type.

@travis i would love to subsidize individual options sometimes

the idea here is that if someone creates large limit orders close to the market price (on both sides), they could be compensated by the platform for the service, which would potentially lead to markets with more liquidity

@Bayesian I wanted to make an answer about letting users just attach their user-defined AMM to an existing market....

But I had too many other answers to add

@Bayesian He is polymarket posting!

@Bayesian the kind of stuff we really love

@Eliza I have a few ideas for this but can't type it out right now.

What Colour are your mana?

Situation: Regular mana is poisoned forever. Charity is toast. The leaderboards have been defiled by the en-ten-en-ing (and un-ten-en-ing). The economy is partly a wreck but partly not.

But today we are free! The site can now explore the fun side of a play money world and also bring back the fun side of not-quite-play-money! Implementing the entire "Sweeps toggle" situation and multiple currencies has opened the door to the kind of gamification that hooked many Manifold users from years past.

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Colored mana is the next big thing for Manifold because it will let us run limited-time competitions, high-stakes markets, and other long-running projects like reviving the charity program.

Here are a preview of some of the things we could do with colored mana:

• Are you big into Tournaments and Competitions? Buy some 2025 Yearly Leaderboard mana and use it on markets enabled for this mana type. At the end of the year, the site can pay a cash prize to the people at the top of the leaderboard. This prestigious leaderboard may be more respected than the main mana leaderboard if it is limited to certain markets that are chosen by the editorial staff, (...keep dreaming up the rules....)

• Maybe you want to enter the Ultimate Masters League, where you can only trade in Diamond Mana (redeem 1,000 regular mana for one Diamond Mana).

• Would you like to buy some Charity Mana? Maybe Charity Mana is yellow. Charity Mana can be bought with USD. When you buy Charity Mana, you can trade on Charity Mana Markets against other users with Charity Mana. Just like the Sweeps toggle. Later on, when you have some Charity Mana built up, you could choose to donate it to the charity of your choice. Maybe if you support the Shrimp you can trade against users who support Wolves, and whoever wins can send $10,000 in the appropriate direction.

• Do you have a surplus of 2025 Yearly Leaderboard mana at the end of the year? Just transfer it to regular mana at a 1:1 rate!

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You get the idea...

The possibilities are endless! We already support two currencies. Gamification people love stuff like this. You can sell these products as limited-time offers. Maybe give some away, etc.

@Eliza In general, I think gamification is a great idea.

• It helps activate new users by giving them a natural starting place to make their first bet.

• It brings people together to bet on the same questions, which should increase engagement and interest.

• It could differentiate Manifold from their competitors.

But I'm skeptical whether creating different categories of mana is the best way to do that. Personally, I don't want to have to track multiple different balances. And I think the Manifold dev team wants to simplify the site so that they can maintain it with a smaller team.

We had contests in the past that served a similar role (for example, 🏆 Who will win Super Tuesday on Manifold? 🏆 | Manifold). I would love for those to happen again.

@Eliza i love this idea but I think part of the reason sweepstakes lowered activation rates for new users was that it was confusing! Having more than one currency makes the site experience much worse, at least atm. I could see manifold getting really big and groups having their own currencies but that seems pretty far off, we have to grow the mana economy first!

@ian pfffft, thanks for reminding me. Now I need to buy some Yes in this answer because it is clearly one of the easier ones to implement (multiple currencies already exist) and yet is trading below many answers that are much more difficult to implement. Or maybe I need to buy all the other ones to 5%.

Temperature check on the site users:

@Eliza Being super broad here with 'cosmetics'. The traditional request was an icon or a hat on your avatar, but anything that is "pointless but visible to yourself or other users / looks cool". The key part of this answer is that it is specifically a mana sink, and not a Only-Pay-Money-Directly feature.

@ScipioFabius This has been bugging me for so long.

Arb.

@NcyRocks No better place to have a discussion about this highly requested feature. I wish we had it.....

1. My understanding is one of the biggest blockers is the way "unresolving" one of these would be very problematic. We now use "unresolve" widely compared to 12-18 months ago and creators tend to assume they can always do it. If we told creators they absolutely could not unresolve after resolving one of these No, then it's probably okay?

2. Is the need less pressing due to the presence of loans?

@Eliza Yeah, loans make this feature less pressing, but I think it's still probably the best potential improvement to Manifold's current market mechanisms.

@Eliza I hadn't thought about the problem of unresolving, but I don't see why it should be difficult - refunding seems trivial, and adding the answer back seems like it shouldn't be harder than adding a new answer. Am I missing something?

@NcyRocks there may be solutions, but i don't think it's quite so simple—all the subsequent trades placed (on other options) post wrong resolution are now somewhat "wrong" themselves. unresolving currently makes the market look like it did right before resolving, it isn't as clear what the market should look like with unresolving a single option

if manifold allowed "undo all trades up until a certain point", it would be straightforward. maybe the math still works out for the other options but it doesn't seem so simple at a glance

@Ziddletwix And you can even imagine:

- Resolve A
- <Trading happens>

- Resolve B

- <Trading happens>

- Resolve C
- <Trading happens>
- Unresolve A (!!??!??!)

Rolling back the action that happened after the early unresolve seems problematic.

Alternatively, if you try to do it without rolling back all those trades, then someone who bought e.g. "No" on Other in the meantime, would potentially be missing their deserved Yes shares on the answer being restored.

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Another way to do this: The site could allow wise market participants with deep pockets (or Acc, or the central bank -- these actors probably don't care about interest rates) to place a large No limit order at under 1% on an option like this so users could sell into it and take most of their profit with only a small fee. The UI could be configured to look similar to a resolve, but leave the act of selling as optional.

@Eliza If the market unresolves, all trades after the incorrect resolution could just be rolled back which doesn’t seem like a big problem to me. If the AMM was giving you prices under an incorrect assumption you can't really say that the trades were valid anyway.

I think the benefits greatly outweigh the costs here.