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MANIFOLD
What Covid treatments will I get?
4
αΉ€440αΉ€96
resolved Jul 19
85%31%
Paxlovid
5%12%
Rest
5%1.7%
Vitamin D
3%1.1%
Zinc lozenges
1%1.7%
Vitamin C
1%1.1%
Hydration (water, green tea, etc)
32%Other
19%
ANTE
Resolves to all Covid treatments I get, probably weighted by importance in my judgement. Examples could include - Prescription treatments such as paxlovid, remdesivir, monoclonal antibody, molnupiravir, fluvoxamine - Non-prescription treatment such as Vitamin D (which I'm already taking), zinc - Hospitalization #Personal #Covid I just tested positive for Covid and have symptoms, see https://manifold.markets/group/jacks-personal-covid-questions/ for more. Jul 1, 11:53am: Also, for this market I'll exclude treatments specifically for the symptoms (e.g. Tylenol).
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Update on this, I did notice the metallic taste more on later uses. I think it's probably reasonably effective against cold and similar viruses, but I didn't have it at the start of the infection when it would have been most useful.
Paxlovid decreased my symptoms massively (by like 90%), so although it probably caused my Covid rebound, I think it was still worth it.
Well, now that I have a post-Paxlovid rebound I'm trying out the zinc lozenges I just ordered. I was worried they'd be horrible in terms of taste, but they seem ok - which makes me worried whether they are actually effective - my research says effectiveness comes from the ionic zinc which tastes very metallic and astringent
To my knowledge, current evidence doesn't show that Vitamin D is effective against Covid, but: - Vitamin D deficiency is common so taking Vitamin D is good for health in general. Studies found 40% of the US population are Vitamin D deficient, and 5% severely deficient - sources in my blog post https://firstsigma.github.io/covid-treatment-and-isolation - They're cheap and there's basically no downside
Correction, my current dose is 6000 IU/day up from my usual 3500 IU/day. My main source of Vitamin D is these gummy vitamins: https://smile.amazon.com/Nature-Made-Strength-Vitamin-Packaging/dp/B07XVYYYPS/. I normally take 1/day, upping it to 2/day while I have Covid. I also get 1000 IU/day from a multivitamin. I do not believe the difference between 5000 and 6000 is significant, but I wouldn't go higher than that because of the risk of side effects.
I probably would take them if I had them, but I wasn't able to find them in my pharmacy and by the time I got them shipped from an online order it seems like it would be too late to matter. I didn't prioritize acquiring zinc yesterday because I was busy getting Paxlovid which is more important :) My research is at https://firstsigma.github.io/covid-treatment-and-isolation under "Zinc". The evidence for it helping with common cold appears moderate, and the effect size large, but the amount of effort involved is also quite nontrivial. The evidence for it helping with Covid appears quite weak, but it’s reasonable to have a fairly strong prior that its effect on the cold and Covid are most likely similar. On the other hand, there are risks of substantial side effects, so not sure if it's worth it on balance.
@jack I haven't heard talk of these since the first week of the pandemic, are these still considered promising?
@jack Fair enough.
This is important but doesn't really seem like a "treatment". I'll probably resolve to <10%.
I currently plan to resolve this 1%, unless significant evidence arises that a specific form of hydration is significantly valuable (e.g. I've seen green tea mentioned a lot). Hydration is important of course, but I wouldn't really consider it a "treatment"
This answer will not be chosen, it's just to provide higher rewards to traders.
Trying to get a lot of rest! But being sick makes it harder.
Taking 1g/day. Probably doesn't help significantly, but there's almost no cost/downside that I'm aware of.
Taking 5000 IU/day (up from my usual 2500 IU/day)