What Covid treatments will I get?

Ṁ97

resolved Jul 19

ALL

85%31%

Paxlovid

5%12%

Rest

5%1.7%

Vitamin D

3%1.1%

Zinc lozenges

1%1.7%

Vitamin C

1%1.1%

Hydration (water, green tea, etc)

19%

ANTE

Resolves to all Covid treatments I get, probably weighted by importance in my judgement. Examples could include - Prescription treatments such as paxlovid, remdesivir, monoclonal antibody, molnupiravir, fluvoxamine - Non-prescription treatment such as Vitamin D (which I'm already taking), zinc - Hospitalization #Personal #Covid I just tested positive for Covid and have symptoms, see https://manifold.markets/group/jacks-personal-covid-questions/ for more. Jul 1, 11:53am: Also, for this market I'll exclude treatments specifically for the symptoms (e.g. Tylenol).

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answered

Zinc lozenges

Update on this, I did notice the metallic taste more on later uses. I think it's probably reasonably effective against cold and similar viruses, but I didn't have it at the start of the infection when it would have been most useful.

answered

Paxlovid

Paxlovid decreased my symptoms massively (by like 90%), so although it probably caused my Covid rebound, I think it was still worth it.

answered

Zinc lozenges

Well, now that I have a post-Paxlovid rebound I'm trying out the zinc lozenges I just ordered. I was worried they'd be horrible in terms of taste, but they seem ok - which makes me worried whether they are actually effective - my research says effectiveness comes from the ionic zinc which tastes very metallic and astringent

answered

Vitamin D

To my knowledge, current evidence doesn't show that Vitamin D is effective against Covid, but: - Vitamin D deficiency is common so taking Vitamin D is good for health in general. Studies found 40% of the US population are Vitamin D deficient, and 5% severely deficient - sources in my blog post https://firstsigma.github.io/covid-treatment-and-isolation - They're cheap and there's basically no downside

answered

Vitamin D

Correction, my current dose is 6000 IU/day up from my usual 3500 IU/day. My main source of Vitamin D is these gummy vitamins: https://smile.amazon.com/Nature-Made-Strength-Vitamin-Packaging/dp/B07XVYYYPS/. I normally take 1/day, upping it to 2/day while I have Covid. I also get 1000 IU/day from a multivitamin. I do not believe the difference between 5000 and 6000 is significant, but I wouldn't go higher than that because of the risk of side effects.

answered

Zinc lozenges

Zinc lozenges are also on this list https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b2MvqatvuhsNBcKbr/stuff-i-might-do-if-i-had-covid

answered

Zinc lozenges

bought Ṁ1

I probably would take them if I had them, but I wasn't able to find them in my pharmacy and by the time I got them shipped from an online order it seems like it would be too late to matter. I didn't prioritize acquiring zinc yesterday because I was busy getting Paxlovid which is more important :) My research is at https://firstsigma.github.io/covid-treatment-and-isolation under "Zinc". The evidence for it helping with common cold appears moderate, and the effect size large, but the amount of effort involved is also quite nontrivial. The evidence for it helping with Covid appears quite weak, but it’s reasonable to have a fairly strong prior that its effect on the cold and Covid are most likely similar. On the other hand, there are risks of substantial side effects, so not sure if it's worth it on balance.

answered

Zinc lozenges

@jack I haven't heard talk of these since the first week of the pandemic, are these still considered promising?

answered

Rest

@jack Fair enough.

answered

Rest

bought Ṁ10

This is important but doesn't really seem like a "treatment". I'll probably resolve to <10%.

answered

Hydration (water, green tea, etc)

bought Ṁ1

I currently plan to resolve this 1%, unless significant evidence arises that a specific form of hydration is significantly valuable (e.g. I've seen green tea mentioned a lot). Hydration is important of course, but I wouldn't really consider it a "treatment"