How many days will my Covid infection last? (Days from first to last positive antigen test)

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Resolves to the number of days between my last positive rapid antigen test and my first (6/30). For example, if my last positive rapid antigen test is on 7/5, that would be 5 days. Note that in the event that I get a negative test followed by more positives, the duration will continue counting up as long as I think it's the same Covid infection and not a new one - so basically I'll resolve after I have consistently gotten negatives for a few days. Related question on how long symptoms will last: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-many-days-will-my-covid-symptom More related questions: https://manifold.markets/group/jacks-personal-covid-questions/questions My Covid timeline: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18_4eASH4NEuq2r1LyB7OQiWnbom1tf-WVISSaf0eork/edit#gid=0

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My rapid antigen tests were negative for the last 4 days. Last positive test was on the 14th.

For reference, it would have been 7 if not for the rebound, since I got a positive on the 7th, negative on the 8th, and then it went back to positives after that.

Antigen tests became negative today, after a faint positive yesterday.

One source I found says: "Both the recurrence of illness and positive test results improved or resolved (median of 3 days) without additional anti-COVID-19 treatment" https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2022/han00467.asp

Barely visible positive on my test just now, tomorrow's will probably be negative, but there's a chance of a post-Paxlovid rebound.

Today's test was negative. If it stays negative, resolution would be 7.

Got a very faint positive today (7/9)

Strong positive today - apparently I am having a post-Paxlovid rebound

Update on my testing: I've been testing daily with rapid antigen tests to get a sense of how high my viral load is. I started Paxlovid on 7/1 afternoon. From 6/30 to 7/2 it was a very strong positive line. 7/3 and 7/4 the line was faint. Today I got a very faint line. My 5-day Paxlovid course ends 7/5 morning, after that it might continue declining or rebound, see https://manifold.markets/jack/if-i-take-paxlovid-will-i-have-a-co

Correction, my Paxlovid course ends tomorrow 7/6 morning.

Some articles/studies I found say duration of Omicron infection (counting from first detection) is about 10 days mean, 5 days median. Which would suggest a distribution with a fairly long right tail. (Although I don't fully trust the reporting, I could not actually find where in the study the numbers came from and the study is looking at a couple different groups and metrics). https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/01/19/new-data-suggests-that-50-of-omicron-infections-in-healthy-young-men-remain-transmissible-after-five-days/?sh=1dc8a45d1fa9 and paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.13.22269257v2.full-text This article https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj.o922 says Omicron symptoms lasted 7 days on average.

From my own experience, I had symptoms on may 10 (tested negative), tested positive may 11, tested negative twice and (every day after) may 19. I still had light cough for ~a week after that. Unclear if the new variants would be longer than that.

I'm very interested to hear about how people are predicting on this - any information sources you can link me?

@jack I'm just betting based on my own and friends' experience, all of our infections lasted around 2 weeks. I don't actually remember how long we were testing positive for, though. So I could be betting on bad info

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