Will I be able to get Paxlovid today?
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resolved Jul 1
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Resolves YES if by end of day I have taken Paxlovid.
I just tested positive on a rapid antigen, have fever/cough/etc and am scheduling appointments to try to get treatment.
#Covid #Personal
See https://manifold.markets/group/jacks-personal-covid-questions/ for more.
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Resolves YES. Probability estimate was at 85% which seems reasonable to me. I got the prescription through my PCP (OneMedical). It did take me a couple tries to schedule a same-day video doctor's appointment. It was pretty widely available in my local pharmacies and I was able to pick it up within hours.
Good references on how to get paxlovid, should anyone need it:
- https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/05/11/1097698090/3-ways-to-get-covid-pills-if-youve-just-tested-positive
- https://maximumtruth.substack.com/p/how-to-get-paxlovid-quickly?s=w
Just got a prescription. The doctor seemed hesitant to recommend it in terms of cost/benefit given the side effects and potential for symptoms to rebound, and that I'm generally lower risk. Doing some more research now to double-check whether the community's recommendation on Paxlovid has changed. If anyone has pointers, that would be great.
@jack To the best of my knowledge, the rebounds are not that much worse. The indications I've seen about them is that people are taking them too soon/not for long enough, thus leaving no time for the immunity system to build up and releasing upon it a wave of covid that is not entirely dealt with (can find the sources for that if you'd like)
@JoyVoid Interesting. I've gotten a prescription for I believe the standard course of Paxlovid (5 days) and my symptoms and rapid antigen positive started yesterday. Is there a guesstimate as to the optimal timing for Paxlovid?
@jack https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1522712422318067719 Michael Mina argues we should make the treatment 10 days instead of 5. I haven't seen any guestimate as for the optimal timing, and am struggling to find studies that studied time of taking the pill accross time. I think it's risk calculation at this point (how likely do you estimate the virus is doing damages now vs how bad do you estimate a rebound could be).
I'm wary of influencing your decision one way or another with ill-founded intuition. I'll send you links if I find more
@JoyVoid Thank you for the link! Michael Mina says in that thread
> It at least hints at a *controversial* idea (that Rustom Antia and I studied years ago in my PhD) to delay treatment to allow the immune system to get ramped up first
But so far I don't see much evidence to pick one or the other.
@JoyVoid After evaluating the info I decided to start taking paxlovid now - basically ASAP, 1 day after symptoms onset and antigen test became positive. I think there's a pretty good case for a longer than 5 day treatment. But regarding the timing of when to start paxlovid, it seems like I'd basically be choosing between: delaying Paxlovid, which is definitely letting the virus do more damage in my body now while also letting my immune response ramp up, vs starting Paxlovid ASAP, which reduces viral load now at the cost of increased risk of the virus lingering for longer because my immune system is not able to eliminate it. I think starting now seems to be the better choice for my goals - minimizing the risk of long covid and severe illness; and reducing how sick I am times how long it lasts. It's still an interesting question and I wish we had studies on it. Thanks a lot for your discussion.
@jack Good luck. I know someone else who came down with it this morning, but he's in Canada, so the odds aren't so high.