Will I get COVID in 2024?

Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before the end of 2024. Otherwise, NO.

Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them.

Info I think will be helpful:

  • As of Feb 4, 2024, I have had COVID once (in August 2022).

  • My current strategy for COVID is "vaccinate and bug-chase". I'll probably get any future updated vaccines, but besides that I will take no precautions. My theory is that I'll keep my immunity current by getting exposed to each new strain as it arrives and that this is (a) likely to result in no infection severe enough to notice/test positive and (b) almost certain to result in no severe consequences of infection.

  • I live in Seattle, WA, USA

Relevant previous market: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2023

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

My housemate (with whom I interact a lot) tested positive on a rapid antigen test a half hour ago. I've taken one just now, and it's come up negative.

bought Ṁ19 NO from 55% to 48%
bought Ṁ10 of NO

@WilliamEhlhardt some questions:

  • how many times have you been vaxxed against COVID?

  • what other diseases have you gotten?

  • do you have a "strong constitution" or not (ie do you feel any sort of illness in general rarely for frequently)?

predicts NO


I got 4 doses of the original vaccine, and the 2022 and 2023 boosters as they came out.

Other diseases in the past couple years: couple of colds.

Strong constitution: yeah, I think I rarely get ill. I do have snuffles consistent with allergies routinely, though.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 54%