Inspired by /8/this-market-resolves-as-yes-if-some
This market resolves YES if anyone (excluding bots) holds at least 5k NO shares in this market at close, NO otherwise.
Deception is explicitly allowed in this market. Think of this as a deception game, like e.g. Mafia - the whole point of the game is that you don't have to tell the truth. Any offers or deals made as part of this market should be considered in-game, and honoring or betraying them is fair game. (Meta discussions, such as discussions about the rules of this market, are still considered out-of-game.) (This is similar to other previous game theory experiments like https://manifold.markets/jack/will-nikitaskovoroda-onebox-in-this)
Do not use alts in this market - limit one account trading on this market per person. There's no enforcement mechanism for this other than shame. (This market would be boring if alts were allowed, don't ruin the fun.)
Related market with a lower number of shares needed: This market resolves as YES if someone has at least 1k NO shares (deception allowed)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,433 | |
| 2 | Ṁ497 | |
| 3 | Ṁ76 | |
| 4 | Ṁ53 | |
| 5 | Ṁ49 |
People are also trading
@A Probably should also allow sending manalinks, but again no commentary can be attached to them other than the mana amount and the name of the user they're intended for.
@A hmm so like a comment of the following type
{"rot13 of mana link code": "<>", "Value" : "200", "intended user" : "A"}
Would be the only type permissible?
Users/players derive strategy instead of negotiating strategy?
@firstuserhere the market maker would hide any comments not following the structure and also make the user ineligible for the market. Any questions about the market's rules can be done on a Linked market to be N/A'd
@firstuserhere Yep, exactly. And users have to agree on the honor system not to communicate via DM's/IRL etc.
I will buy this market back up soon.
In the meantime, here's a market you can close. My trades made our this market go from 98.9 to 0.2%.
Enjoy!
@firstuserhere okay, rebuy my 50 mana order at 99% and i'll have 5k no again. Its cheaper to do the deal now because my cost is lower lol!
@AlexRockwell I would once i have mana. i have 0 right now. I will do it after the whales vs minnows market now i think. I spent 30-40k there and am getting back 250k back. So yeah.
@firstuserhere and if that market isn't resolved by this market's close date, i'd make sure to buy your limit orders anyway
@AlexRockwell Sure, set up a limit order at 98 or 99% so that it will be cheap for you to buy the NO. I will offer you the same deal as @swiftielover down in the comments
@firstuserhere I completely forgot about this market. Why did I place these limit orders? I am sure I had a plan...
@AlexbGoode hahaha those getting triggered must've surprised you then. It's was enough to buy 5k shares. I saw 250+Mana worth of limit by you
@firstuserhere I'm happy to compensate you for that amount + 3% interest in that amount per day, if you hold your shares till the end
@AlexbGoode That is a guaranteed Ṁ you get whereas it's anything between 0 and 4999 you get by switching sides. Still, let's make it more lucrative. 420 Ṁ if you hold above 5k NO shares to make this market resolve YES
@AlexbGoode Gg. Now, @swiftielover you also bought 5k NO shares. But that was after Alex already reached there. I'd offer you whichever of the following feels best to you-
1. 25% of the deal i offered to Alex (=105 Ṁ ) to hold the 5K NO shares at close. That's guaranteed mana, even if less than max potential on the other side.
2. Your spent mana = 90 + 1% of my net profits in this market if it resolves YES with you holding >=5k NO shares at close.
3. Your spent Ṁ 90 + 3% interest on it per day till market close