This is part 2 of /jack/will-the-responder-onebox-in-this-n

Here I will run an instance of Newcomb's problem, a decision theory thought experiment. The setup is as follows:

There are two boxes designated A and B. The player is given a choice between taking only box B or taking both boxes A and B. There will be a Manifold prediction market which predicts whether the player takes just one box or both boxes.

• Box A always contains M$1.

• Box B contains M$1000 times the probability that Manifold predicts of the player taking only one box. (E.g. if the market predicts 30% chance of taking only one box, Box 2 contains Ṁ300)

Both boxes are transparent, i.e. the player knows exactly how much mana is contained inside them.

@NikitaSkovoroda was the randomly selected player. This market predicts whether the player will one-box: this market resolves YES if they take only box B, and NO if they take both boxes. The amount in Box B is set based on the closing price of this market. At the conclusion of this market, the player will decide between taking only box B or both boxes. The player will receive a manalink for the amount of mana contained in the box or boxes they take.

Rules:

• The player is welcome to talk about their thinking, or to say nothing. They can communicate with people either in public (e.g. on this market) or in private. For all "in-game" discussions, deception is allowed and part of the game. (That does not include out-of-game/meta discussions, e.g. about the rules of the game.)

• The player must agree not to have any financial interest in their decision outside of the game. They are not allowed to trade in the market, in derivative markets, or take outside bribes.

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