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If Trump is indicted, will his favorability rating fall by at least 5%?
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Ṁ5.0kresolved May 16
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If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if his favorable rating on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ one month after the indictment's announcement is at least 5% lower than the day before the indictment's announcement. NO if his favorable rating is higher or less than 5% lower. N/A if he is not indicted on criminal charges.
Any criminal indictment in any jurisdication will count.
Only the favorable rating (currently 40.9%) will be used here, the unfavorable rating is not relevant to this question.
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@ShadowyZephyr I agree. It only ever fell 3.6% (on April 8th), and on April 30th it was 41.6%, so +0.6%, and not -5.0% required by the market description. This should resolve NO.
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