If Trump is indicted, will his favorability rating fall by at least 5%?

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resolved May 16

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If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if his favorable rating on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ one month after the indictment's announcement is at least 5% lower than the day before the indictment's announcement. NO if his favorable rating is higher or less than 5% lower. N/A if he is not indicted on criminal charges.

Any criminal indictment in any jurisdication will count.

Only the favorable rating (currently 40.9%) will be used here, the unfavorable rating is not relevant to this question.

Market context

US Politics

Trump

2024 US Presidential Election

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The date of the indictment's announcement was Mar 30, and his favorable rating on that date was 40.8%

predictedNO

The number that's being used for the question is the favorable rating on the day before the indictment's announcement, which was 41.0%.

predictedNO

@jack Hello? April 30 passed two weeks ago, this should resolve No

@ShadowyZephyr I agree. It only ever fell 3.6% (on April 8th), and on April 30th it was 41.6%, so +0.6%, and not -5.0% required by the market description. This should resolve NO.