If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 50% after one year in office?
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1kṀ20k2026
5%
chance
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If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Resolution Source Clarification:
If 538 is unavailable, the resolution will use RCP instead.
Primary Resolution Source remains the 538 Job Approval average, provided it is available.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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