If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 50% after one year in office?
52
1kṀ12k2026
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Resolution Source Clarification:
If 538 is unavailable, the resolution will use RCP instead.
Primary Resolution Source remains the 538 Job Approval average, provided it is available.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@creator https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating is the RCP Trump approval link, can you put that in the description please?
@Balasar edit the closing date to be sometime after January 20th, 2026. Currently it's set to September 30th, 2024
Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump's approval rating fall below 40% in 2025?
85% chance
Will Donald Trump’s approval rating be above 30 on April 1, 2025
99% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?
13% chance
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 45% after one year in office?
30% chance
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?
46% chance
If Donald Trump becomes the next president, what will his approval rating be a year after assuming office?
38% chance
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
31% chance
When will President Trump's approval rating go below 38%?
What will be President Donalds Trump approval rating on December 31st, 2025?
Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?
58% chance