If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 50% after one year in office? | Manifold

If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 50% after one year in office?

54

1kṀ15k

2026

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Resolution Source Clarification:
- If 538 is unavailable, the resolution will use RCP instead.
- Primary Resolution Source remains the 538 Job Approval average, provided it is available.

Republican Party

2024 US Presidential Election

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@creator https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating is the RCP Trump approval link, can you put that in the description please?

President Donald Trump Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling

Track President Trump's job approval with RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights and stay informed on the latest ratings and political developments for a comprehensive view of the political landscape.

@DanielTilkin sure

In the case that 538 does not stick around, we will use RCP instead.

bought Ṁ200 YES

Based upon what poll?

@Balasar edit the closing date to be sometime after January 20th, 2026. Currently it's set to September 30th, 2024

Also see: https://manifold.markets/Balasar/if-harris-wins-will-her-approval-ra?play=true

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Will Trump's approval rating fall below 40% in 2025?

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Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?

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