If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 45% after one year in office? | Manifold

If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 45% after one year in office?

51

1kṀ3529

2026

16%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Resolution Source
- If 538 is not available, RCP will be used as the approval rating source.

Republican Party

2024 US Presidential Election

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In the case that 538 does not stick around, we will use RCP instead.

bought Ṁ150 YES

Based upon what poll?

@JeffBerman Thanks for the question. I will be using the 538 job approval rating average for Jan 20th, 2026.

@Balasar Thank you

Having trouble resolving this N/A. @mods

@Balasar Are you confusing this with another market? Trump did win, so no need to N/A

@Agh My apologies, I got this confused with my Harris market of the same form.

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