If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 45% after one year in office?

85

Ṁ1kṀ50k

resolved Jan 20

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Resolution Source
- If 538 is not available, RCP will be used as the approval rating source.

2024 US Presidential Election

Republican Party

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ3,090
2		Ṁ279
3		Ṁ231
4		Ṁ163
5		Ṁ162

People are also trading

Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?

Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?

Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?

Sort by:

In the case that 538 does not stick around, we will use RCP instead.

bought Ṁ150 YES

Based upon what poll?

@JeffBerman Thanks for the question. I will be using the 538 job approval rating average for Jan 20th, 2026.

@Balasar Thank you

Having trouble resolving this N/A. @mods

@Balasar Are you confusing this with another market? Trump did win, so no need to N/A

@Agh My apologies, I got this confused with my Harris market of the same form.

People are also trading

Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?

Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?

Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?

Related questions

Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?

Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?

Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?