SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement and The Economist.
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Musk just said that if things go well then they'll launch next month. Seems very unlikely then that they'll launch this month.
If traders think there is a 2/3 chance that Starship launches by the end of march: https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-acc36296ce4c
And Elon says that "We have a real shot at late February. March launch attempt appears highly likely."
Then I am thinking that more of the probability mass lies in the month of March than in the month of February. So this market should be at less than half the probability of the other market.