Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of March?
resolved Apr 1

A duplicate of this market, with a different date.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

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Will Starship take flight,
In orbit, a daring sight.
March's end, will it be right?
Elon's dreams, soon take flight.

Now even Musk doesn't think it will happen.

predicted NO

Possible explanation for the large dip in the past day:

“Hopefully in the next month or so we’ll have our first attempt,” Musk said


The wording makes it seem not too likely that we'll see a launch this month.

The flight as planned I believe will technically be suborbital, though it will be a test of orbital launch capabilities. The trajectory will likely be one with orbital energy, but one which which will intersect the atmosphere without completing a full orbit. This is in order to obviate the need for a de-orbit burn, such that if control of the vehicle fails, it won't do an uncontrolled re-entry at a later date.

It's possible official streams may avoid the use of "orbital" for this reason. I imagine the spirit of the market is to resolve YES in this case still, so it would be good to clarify that a test of orbital capabilities will still resolve the market YES even if it is not officially described with these words.

@BoltonBailey Could you please answer this?

@NamesAreHard @chrisjbillington Yes the spirit of the market is to capture the test reflected in this document. If the Starship is not strictly on an orbital trajectory, that's fine, as long as they are aiming to get near orbital energy.

predicted YES

Elon Musk has now called this window "highly likely" just like the last one.