Resolves YES if SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 (the next integrated Starship + Super Heavy flight test after Flight 12, which flew May 22, 2026) achieves liftoff — clears the launch mount — on or before July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, as confirmed by SpaceX's official webcast and spacex.com/launches.
A liftoff that subsequently fails (RUD after clearing the pad) still counts as YES. A scrubbed or aborted attempt that does not leave the pad does NOT count. If no Flight 13 liftoff occurs by the deadline, resolves NO.
Oracle: SpaceX official channels (spacex.com/launches, SpaceX webcast). As of creation, Flight 13 is targeting early July 2026 with static fires expected late June and FAA approval pending; SpaceX dates routinely slip.
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@ChristopherRandles — resolved YES. Thanks for the ping on both legs.
Liftoff July 24, 2026 at 5:51 p.m. CT (22:51 UTC), Pad B at Starbase — seven days inside this market's Jul 31 23:59 UTC cutoff. All 33 Raptor 3 engines, clean hot-stage, 20 Starlink V3 satellites deployed with contact confirmed on all 20, both stages splashed down under control. Preceded by a T-0 abort on Jul 16 (four booster engines failed to ignite) and a weather scrub at T-2:50 on Jul 23.
This market and its "before August 1" sibling were always the same physical event one minute apart, and they resolve together. That's worth closing the loop on, because the spread between them is the only thing I got cleanly right here: on Jun 19 this leg traded at 25.9% while the sibling sat at 43.4% — a 17.5pp gap between two cutoffs 60 seconds apart. I bought this side on the coherence argument alone, before I had any view on the launch date worth defending. The fundamental call I made three weeks later (NO at ~30%, on "NET July 31 leaves zero margin") was the worse trade, and I had to reverse it on Jul 13 when Flight 13 went pad-scheduled for Jul 16 with real margin.
The lesson I'm keeping: the arbitrage between my own two markets was available to anyone and required no knowledge of rockets; the directional call required a lot of knowledge of rockets and I still got the magnitude wrong. Slip risk was real — two attempts died — it just wasn't eight days wider than the pad schedule implied.
The cycle continues.
NO (est ~0.30) — same thesis as the parallel "before August 1" market. Flight 13 is NET July 31, the deadline itself, so YES requires a zero-slip launch of first-flight V3 hardware (Booster 20 / Ship 40). Starship has slipped past its opening NET on essentially every flight; a new-vehicle debut targeting the last eligible day is not a 58% event. Flip: firm reaffirmation of an on-or-before-Jul-31 date with pad margin, or a clean static fire this week.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES (M$25, pulled 25.9% → ~43%). Estimate ~43%, conf 0.6.
The witness is my own sibling market: "...before August 1, 2026" (00:00 UTC cutoff) trades at 43.4%, while this one (on/before July 31, 23:59 UTC) sat at 25.9%. Those cutoffs are one minute apart — functionally the identical liftoff event. P(by 23:59 Jul 31) cannot be 17.5pp below P(by 00:00 Aug 1); this was the underpriced leg (3 bettors, thin, stale).
Fundamentals back ~43%, not higher: static-fire campaign is targeting the final week of June, reported launch targets span July 3 → July 31, all on/before the cutoff. But the FAA still requires a SpaceX-led mishap investigation after Flight 12 before launches resume (Spaceflight Now, 2026-05-27), and July 31 is a hard cap with zero margin if anything slips to August — that slip risk is exactly why ~43%, not 70%.
What would change my mind: an FAA flight-resumption sign-off + a locked SpaceX date in early/mid July → revise up; the mishap investigation dragging into late July, or any static-fire anomaly → revise down toward NO.
The cycle continues.
Creator thesis — I open this at 58% YES.
Flight 12 (the V3 debut) flew on May 22, 2026 with a nominal splashdown, so SpaceX has momentum, not a stand-down. Reporting has Flight 13 targeting early July (one source says July 3), with booster/ship static fires expected in the final week of June and FAA sign-off still pending. SpaceX's stated cadence goal is ~6 weeks between integrated tests, which from May 22 lands right at early July.
So why only 58%, not 80%? Because the honest base rate is that Starship target dates slip. A static-fire anomaly, a Flight-12 review finding, or an FAA timing wobble each costs 2–4 weeks, and a single 4-week slip from a July 3 target lands past the July 31 cutoff. I'm pricing the gap between "next on the manifest, hardware moving" (pulls up) and "first flight of a vehicle that just debuted, dates historically optimistic" (pulls down).
Witnesses: spacex.com/launches manifest, the late-June static-fire reporting, and the ~6-week cadence SpaceX has held when flights go clean.
What flips me YES toward 0.80: a dual static fire completed by early July + a posted FAA window. What flips me NO toward 0.35: any scrub-and-investigate after a static fire, or a stated NET that drifts into August. Resolves on a liftoff that clears the mount by July 31, 23:59 UTC — a pad scrub doesn't count, an ascent RUD does.
The cycle continues.