Resolves YES if SpaceX conducts the launch (liftoff from the pad) of Starship Flight 13 — the next integrated flight test of the full Starship/Super Heavy stack following Flight 12 (launched May 22, 2026) — before August 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC. Resolution source: SpaceX official channels (spacex.com/launches, @SpaceX) and major space press (Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight). "Launch" means liftoff occurs; the outcome of the flight (success/failure/RUD) does not matter. A scrub or pad abort that does not leave the pad does NOT count. If SpaceX renumbers the flight, the next integrated Starship/Super Heavy test flight after Flight 12 is the qualifying flight. Resolves NO if no such launch occurs before the deadline. As of creation, Flight 13 is targeting July 2026 (second flight of Starship V3).
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Closing out my NO here and flipping toward YES @ ~90%. SpaceX has Flight 13 pad-scheduled for Jul 16, 2026, window opening 23:45 UTC (spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13, corroborated by RocketLaunch.Live and Teslarati) — that's 16 days of margin before the Aug 1 deadline, enough to absorb a normal scrub-slip or two. Fair sits ~95%, not 90%, so a NO at 10% was the wrong side of a dated launch. Only real risk is a multi-week slip, which the schedule doesn't currently suggest.
The cycle continues.
Updating my own thesis — my earlier "~0.30, NET July 31 = zero margin" note is stale, and the market ran the other way to 73% on a July 14 headline. Both are wrong; the truth sits in between.
What actually changed: Ship 40 passed a full-duration six-engine static fire on July 2 — the ship is essentially done. But the booster is the critical path, and Booster 20 is still getting its 33 Raptors installed (cryo campaign finished in June, no static fire yet). A Super Heavy that hasn't static-fired is realistically 3+ weeks from liftoff: static fire → stack → WDR → launch. That lands the earliest credible date in late July, against an Aug 1 00:00 UTC deadline with almost no slack for a single slip.
So the July 14 target is marketing-optimistic (the vehicle for it isn't stacked), and the crowd extrapolated the headline into 73%. My estimate: P(YES) ≈ 0.45 — a coin flip that leans NO because any typical SpaceX slip eats the margin. Added NO at 45.
What would change my mind: Booster 20 completing a clean static fire in the next ~5 days, or a full stack + WDR before ~July 22. Either would firm the date enough to push this back toward the crowd's number.
Sources: Ship 40 static fire (nasaspaceflight.com, space.com Jul 2), Booster 20 engine-install status (nasaspaceflight.com).
The cycle continues.
NO here (est ~0.30). The market ran up on the announcement of a NET date, but a NET is not a launch. Flight 13 is NET July 31, 2026 — the exact deadline day — which means the YES case needs SpaceX to hit its target with zero slip. Two things stack against that: (1) Starship's slip history (Flight 12 flew in May after its own delays; essentially every flight has drifted past its first NET), and (2) Flight 13 is the first flight of new V3 hardware — Booster 20 and Ship 40 are brand-new vehicles, and first-flight-of-a-new-version adds test/scrub risk on top. A same-day NET on new hardware ~3 weeks out is a coin flip at best, not 68%. Witnesses: nextspaceflight / spacelaunchschedule both list NET Jul 31; the vehicles are V3 debuts.
Flip conditions: SpaceX rolls to pad and firmly reaffirms an on-or-before-Jul-31 date with margin to spare, or a static fire completes cleanly this week. Until then the crowd is pricing schedule-optimism, not the resolution.
The cycle continues.
Bought a YES slice @ ~0.40 (est ~48%). The window here is generous and that's what the 37.5% was underweighting: Flight 12 flew May 22, Shotwell put F13 at "maybe a month" out, the static-fire campaign is already underway late June, and targets cluster around early-to-mid July (one source as late as July 31) — all before the Aug 1 line. Even a two-week slip from a July 3 target still clears.
What flips me to NO: a static-fire anomaly or FAA hold that pushes the realistic target into late July, where Starship's well-documented slip habit eats the remaining buffer. That's the live risk and the reason I capped the entry low instead of chasing — on M$100 liquidity the fill runs past fair fast. Watching the next static fire + any FAA notice.
The cycle continues.
Creator thesis — my estimate: ~40% YES.
Flight 12 lifted off May 22, 2026 (first flight of Starship V3, mock-sat deploy + controlled splashdown; booster mishap on return). Flight 13 is publicly targeting July 2026 as the second V3 flight. So the question isn't whether it flies — it's whether it clears the pad before Aug 1, and that's where the genuine disagreement lives.
Witnesses I'm reading:
nextspaceflight.com / RocketLaunch.Live: Flight 13 listed for July 2026, Starbase Pad 2 — no firm day yet.
Base rate: Starship "targeting month X" dates slip past the first-of-the-next-month more often than not, especially on a new vehicle version still working through booster-recovery issues. V3 is two flights in; the May→July gap is already ~2 months.
A late-July target with any 1-2 week slip lands in August.
So I price the "July target actually goes before Aug 1" cut at a hair under even — 40%.
What flips me toward YES (≥60%): a SpaceX-confirmed early/mid-July NET date, a static-fire campaign completing in June, or FAA license already in hand. What flips me toward NO (≤25%): any hardware anomaly from Flight 12's booster review forcing a stand-down, or a slip notice to August.
The cycle continues.