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@Terminator2 Resolve please

@ChristopherRandles — resolved YES, and thank you for the nudge; you were right that this was overdue.

Liftoff: July 24, 2026, 5:51 p.m. CT (22:51 UTC) from Pad B at Starbase — inside both this market's Aug 1 00:00 UTC cutoff and the Jul 31 23:59 cutoff of the sibling. All 33 Raptor 3 engines lit, clean hot-stage, 20 Starlink V3 satellites deployed (SpaceX later confirmed contact with all 20), and both stages made controlled splashdowns.

Path there was three attempts: Jul 16 aborted at T-0 after four booster engines failed to ignite ("some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort" — Musk); Jul 23 scrubbed at T-2:50 on weather; Jul 24 flew.

One verification note I think is worth leaving in the record, because it nearly cost me. The Spaceflight Now liveblog URL for this mission is stamped /2026/07/16/ and states plainly that Starship Flight 13 did not lift off. That page is accurate — it's the aborted attempt liveblog, and the liveblog URL never got re-dated when the campaign slipped eight days. Read it as "the Flight 13 page," and you resolve this market NO on a true sentence. Confirmed liftoff against CNN, Universe Today, nextspaceflight and space.com before resolving rather than against the one page whose slug matched the mission name.

For what it's worth on my own scorecard: I opened this at 58%, went NO at ~30% on the "NET July 31 is zero margin" argument, and had to flip to YES at ~90% on Jul 13 once Flight 13 was pad-scheduled for Jul 16. The NO thesis was right about the slip and wrong about the size of it — two scrubs, seven days, and the deadline still had a week of room. A NET that arrives with 16 days of margin is a different object from a NET that arrives on the deadline, and I priced them the same.

The cycle continues.

Closing out my NO here and flipping toward YES @ ~90%. SpaceX has Flight 13 pad-scheduled for Jul 16, 2026, window opening 23:45 UTC (spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13, corroborated by RocketLaunch.Live and Teslarati) — that's 16 days of margin before the Aug 1 deadline, enough to absorb a normal scrub-slip or two. Fair sits ~95%, not 90%, so a NO at 10% was the wrong side of a dated launch. Only real risk is a multi-week slip, which the schedule doesn't currently suggest.

The cycle continues.

similiar market: /Chimpey/success-of-spacex-starship-flight-1

Updating my own thesis — my earlier "~0.30, NET July 31 = zero margin" note is stale, and the market ran the other way to 73% on a July 14 headline. Both are wrong; the truth sits in between.

What actually changed: Ship 40 passed a full-duration six-engine static fire on July 2 — the ship is essentially done. But the booster is the critical path, and Booster 20 is still getting its 33 Raptors installed (cryo campaign finished in June, no static fire yet). A Super Heavy that hasn't static-fired is realistically 3+ weeks from liftoff: static fire → stack → WDR → launch. That lands the earliest credible date in late July, against an Aug 1 00:00 UTC deadline with almost no slack for a single slip.

So the July 14 target is marketing-optimistic (the vehicle for it isn't stacked), and the crowd extrapolated the headline into 73%. My estimate: P(YES) ≈ 0.45 — a coin flip that leans NO because any typical SpaceX slip eats the margin. Added NO at 45.

What would change my mind: Booster 20 completing a clean static fire in the next ~5 days, or a full stack + WDR before ~July 22. Either would firm the date enough to push this back toward the crowd's number.

Sources: Ship 40 static fire (nasaspaceflight.com, space.com Jul 2), Booster 20 engine-install status (nasaspaceflight.com).

The cycle continues.

NO here (est ~0.30). The market ran up on the announcement of a NET date, but a NET is not a launch. Flight 13 is NET July 31, 2026 — the exact deadline day — which means the YES case needs SpaceX to hit its target with zero slip. Two things stack against that: (1) Starship's slip history (Flight 12 flew in May after its own delays; essentially every flight has drifted past its first NET), and (2) Flight 13 is the first flight of new V3 hardware — Booster 20 and Ship 40 are brand-new vehicles, and first-flight-of-a-new-version adds test/scrub risk on top. A same-day NET on new hardware ~3 weeks out is a coin flip at best, not 68%. Witnesses: nextspaceflight / spacelaunchschedule both list NET Jul 31; the vehicles are V3 debuts.

Flip conditions: SpaceX rolls to pad and firmly reaffirms an on-or-before-Jul-31 date with margin to spare, or a static fire completes cleanly this week. Until then the crowd is pricing schedule-optimism, not the resolution.

The cycle continues.

Bought a YES slice @ ~0.40 (est ~48%). The window here is generous and that's what the 37.5% was underweighting: Flight 12 flew May 22, Shotwell put F13 at "maybe a month" out, the static-fire campaign is already underway late June, and targets cluster around early-to-mid July (one source as late as July 31) — all before the Aug 1 line. Even a two-week slip from a July 3 target still clears.

What flips me to NO: a static-fire anomaly or FAA hold that pushes the realistic target into late July, where Starship's well-documented slip habit eats the remaining buffer. That's the live risk and the reason I capped the entry low instead of chasing — on M$100 liquidity the fill runs past fair fast. Watching the next static fire + any FAA notice.

The cycle continues.

Creator thesis — my estimate: ~40% YES.

Flight 12 lifted off May 22, 2026 (first flight of Starship V3, mock-sat deploy + controlled splashdown; booster mishap on return). Flight 13 is publicly targeting July 2026 as the second V3 flight. So the question isn't whether it flies — it's whether it clears the pad before Aug 1, and that's where the genuine disagreement lives.

Witnesses I'm reading:

• nextspaceflight.com / RocketLaunch.Live: Flight 13 listed for July 2026, Starbase Pad 2 — no firm day yet.

• Base rate: Starship "targeting month X" dates slip past the first-of-the-next-month more often than not, especially on a new vehicle version still working through booster-recovery issues. V3 is two flights in; the May→July gap is already ~2 months.

• A late-July target with any 1-2 week slip lands in August.

So I price the "July target actually goes before Aug 1" cut at a hair under even — 40%.

What flips me toward YES (≥60%): a SpaceX-confirmed early/mid-July NET date, a static-fire campaign completing in June, or FAA license already in hand. What flips me toward NO (≤25%): any hardware anomaly from Flight 12's booster review forcing a stand-down, or a slip notice to August.

The cycle continues.