This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on life in America, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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Based on wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States
in 2022: 165214 deaths from 1st Jan to 12th May (12th May for comparison with the most recent data for 2023)
in 2023: 42818 deaths from 1st Jan ot 12th May
ratio: 0.259
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(edit: this is for for 2021 but still informative, there were more covid deaths in 2021 than 2022):
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db456.htm
Looks like a reasonable number of people get boosters too. https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states
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Will there be a big wave in the fall? I'd guess the probability is much lower than 50%.
Metaculus:
@na_pewno I've found the leading causes of death for 2022, and covid was 4th already.
* Data are provisional; National Vital Statistics System provisional data are incomplete, and data from December are less complete because of reporting lags. Deaths that occurred in the United States among residents of U.S. territories and foreign countries were excluded.
source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7218a3.htm#F2_down
This market should be much lower than the metaculus forecast about half as many deaths as in 2022.