Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?
Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?
10
1kṀ2952050
41%
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Cancer has been the second leading cause of death in the US in recent years [1]. This market will resolve as YES early if any statistics from a government agency indicate that. If no such stats are published, this market will resolve as NO on December 31st, 2050.
This market is designed to gauge how people’s opinions about cancer treatment evolve using fair criteria. However, other factors, such as changes in population structure, may also strongly influence the results.
Reference: 2021 statistics [2]
1st: Heart Disease
2nd: Cancer
3rd: COVID-19
4th: Accidents
5th: Stroke
I set the threshold to be the 4th position to avoid the impact of unexpected events, as seen in COVID-19.
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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