Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?

Technology•Science•United States•Medicine•Cancer•AOH1996

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2035

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Cancer has been the second leading cause of death in the US in recent years [1]. This market will resolve as YES early if any statistics from a government agency indicate that. If no such stats are published, this market will resolve as NO on December 31st, 2035.

This market is designed to gauge how people’s opinions about cancer treatment evolve using fair criteria. However, other factors, such as changes in population structure, may also strongly influence the results.

Reference: 2021 statistics [2]

1st: Heart Disease

2nd: Cancer

3rd: COVID-19

4th: Accidents

5th: Stroke

I set the threshold to be the 4th position to avoid the impact of unexpected events, as seen in COVID-19.

[1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-is-on-track-to-become-the-u-s-s-leading-cause-of-death-yet-again1/

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

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Most of "accidental deaths" are either drug overdoses (reported confusingly as "unintentional posioning") or car crashes.

Drug overdoses were increasing basically exponentially up through 2021:

Although they have leveled off in the past year:

Meanwhile, car crash deaths per year are steadier, and have been overall decreasing as cars become safer. I'd expect this trend to continue thanks to self-driving-car safety features like automatic braking.

Still, I could imagine "accidents" crowding out cancer if some deadly new drug hits the USA around 2035, even if we don't make much progress on cancer.

I wonder how this shakes out in the scenario that both the weight loss drugs and the solid tumors drug have large impacts. Presumably the cancer deaths fall, but much of the rest of the top contenders would decrease as well.