Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?
Dec 31

Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.


At the bottom of above link is the pre-analysis plan. Local crime measured by responses of village elders to survey questions.


2023 working paper: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf

If the "Long Term arm" has significantly less crime (as defined by the PAP) than the Control group, then the market resolves Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves No.

Note that if the p-value is above .05 on this test, then the results will be considered insignificant and the market will resolve No.

The market will resolve based on the first set of results released by the authors on crime that purports to be running the tests outlined in the PAP.

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The authors released a working paper recently: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf. The working paper does not report the crime results so I am extending the market. I added a few clarifications on the resolution criteria based on seeing the structure of the working paper.

predicts YES

@DismalScientist, does "significant" in this context mean statistically significant?

@JoshuaAnderson Yes. There is more details on the tests they will run the PAP pdf. You can download from this link: https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/versions/76107/docs/version/document. I will follow the standard for statistical significance they use in their write-up (which I think is likely to be whether an effect is statistically significant at the 5% level). If there is an insignificant effect, the market resolves no.

Yes because the duration of the experiment is so short, but if it went for 25y probably the reverse

How significant am amount is $0.75 USD in Kenya?

@jonsimon Here is the background the authors provided “This research took place in Siaya and Bomet Counties in Kenya, which have populations of 940,000 and 860,000, respectively. Approximately 630,000 people in these counties are living below the Kenyan government’s poverty line defined as less than US$15 per household member per month for rural areas, and US$28 for urban areas”

@jonsimon Ok so 75c per day averages to $22.5 per month, right in between those two poverty line numbers. So basically you're getting payed a permanent poverty-level supplemental salary. Assuming these are individual-level poverty numbers, that would be analogous to receiving ~$14k per year in the US. Seems like for people on the edge that would be enough to make a difference?