2024: Will there be more than 20,000 Objects Launched into Outer Space?
➕
Plus
19
Ṁ2831
Dec 31
89%
chance

This market will resolve to YES, if according to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), there are more than 20,000 objects launched into outer space before the end of 2024.

https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/osoindex/search-ng.jspx?lf_id=

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

The market closes 31 December 2024 which is fine.

Last objects launched on table currently is 9 July so 6 weeks before the table catches up.

Will the question be resolved based on number displayed on 1 Jan 2025 regardless of date of last table entry? or
Will you wait ~6-8 weeks until objects launched are all reported to be 2025 launches then take number and subtract the number launched in 2025? (there is a filter by year option).

6-8 weeks of launches could make a difference and I think question should be about number of objects launched not about how out of date the data is. So I prefer waiting for the data but would like this confirmed. @itsTomekK

To clarify - market is meant to ask about number if satellites launched by the end of 2024 as reported by OOSA, not a number reported at the end of 2024

Will wait for the data before resolution

Thanks for asking!

I initially read this title as "more than 20,000 objects launched into space in 2024", but your description is making me think it's "more than 20,000 total launched by the end of 2024" (so ~5200 more objects). Which interpretation is correct?

@DanMan314 Number circled is a total launched whenever. 2023 will end with total around 17626 and 2023 number around 2917. So 2024 launched objects would have to fall by ~16% for it not to be true.

@ChristopherRandles Right, like I said I think the second interpretation of the market being about the cumulative launched objects is more reasonable. Just looking for confirmation of that from Tomek.

@DanMan314 Yes, the market is about total number of objects. Should i clarify some wording? Thanks

@itsTomekK Not sure I have a great suggestion, I just misread the title at first and think others might too. Maybe

2024: "Will the number of objects launched into outer space reach 20,000"?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules